NCAA Tournament Betting: Louisville vs California

Both of these teams can produce points - Louisville averages 76.3 per game and Cal registers 78 points per contest. Louisville found itself in a little bit of a slowdown in the Big East tournament and lost to Cincinnati by a 69-66 count, while California played racehorse basketball with Washington in the Pac-10 final, losing 79-75.

Louisville Cardinals (20-12 SU, 10-17 ATS) vs. California Golden Bears (23-10 SU, 18-13-1 ATS)
NCAA Tournament @ Jacksonville
Friday, March 19 - 9:45 PM ET

NCAA Basketball Betting Odds: CALIFORNIA -1, TOTAL 14

Here are some of the NCAA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• LOU has covered two of its last seven games
• LOU has played seven of its last ten games UNDER the total
• CAL has won and covered six of its last seven games
• CAL has played seven of its last ten games OVER the total

It is clear that Louisville Cardinals wants to take advantage of Cal's lack of bulk on the inside, which will be pronounced now that Omondi Amoke, a starting forward for the Bears, has been suspended indefinitely. Rick Pitino is looking to highlight the presence of center Samardo Samuels (15.3 ppg, 7 rpg). That's why he has inserted Jared Swopshire, who likes to play more on the outside, in place of Terrence Jennings on the front line.

California starts the three-guard lineup which includes Patrick Christopher (16 ppg), Theo Robertson (14.1 ppg) and Jerome Randle (18.7 ppg). They are all seniors, and all three of them can hit the three-pointer, so they have a distinct shooting edge over what Louisville has at guard, where Edgar Sosa is less than a 40% shooter. They are also at least 80% from the free throw line, and Cal has another guard in its rotation - Jorge Gutierrez - who cans 42% from the arc.

The thing about California Golden Bears is that it has at times allowed its offense to get "junked up" a bit. USC, which plays sticky defense, has held them to 67 and 63 points in the two meetings; they only scored 65 and 64 against Oregon State. As most people know, Pitino likes to put full court pressure on his opponents. There is a case to be made against that, of course, with Cal having all that experience in the backcourt and all those players you don't want to leave with open looks on the perimeter.

My guess is that whenever possible, they will set up in a good half-court defense and make California work the ball around to get a good shot. That takes up time on the shot clock. Samuels will patrol the middle enough to prevent a lot of inside offense, and Louisville will take its chances with that kind of approach.

Under the circumstances, I don't think it's unreasonable to suspect that Cal might get taken out of its offense here. Remember, Louisville has had much more success in the post-season. We're going UNDER the 149 points as it is posted in the March Madness NCAA basketball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 149 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)