NCAA Tournament Play-in Game: Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Winthrop

This play-in game makes the official NCAA field 65-strong, and I imagine in time there might be play-in games for every region, to bring the field up to 68 teams. That's about as much expansion as a lot of teams are prepared for.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (17-15 SU, 1-4 ATS) vs. Winthrop Eagles (19-13 SU, 2-2 ATS)
NCAA Tournament - Play-In Game
Tuesday, March 16 - 7:30 PM ET

NCAA Basketball Betting Odds: WINTHROP -4

Here are some of the NCAAB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• APB has won 11 of its last 12 games SU
• APB has covered one of its last five games
• APB has played three of its last four games UNDER the total
• WIN has won 11 of its last 14 games SU

Let's play the "stat" game for a minute, as we analyze this game for the NCAA basketball betting odds. Winthrop is a very tight defensive team, limiting its opponents to a shade below 40% shooting from the floor. However, the Eagles are also the worst shooting team in the entire 65-team field, and features a part-time starter at guard (Robbie Dreher) who shoots just below 30%. You would think that with those kind of numbers, Winthrop must be three-point crazy to get to this point, after winning the Big South title. However, that isn't the case; in fact, they have made just 3.8 shots per game from beyond the arc, and nobody on the roster is even an intermediate threat, as no one has made an average of more than one a game.

How could this team possibly have gotten to the NCAA's, you might ask? Well, they competed in the Big South, which means they had to beat teams like Liberty, Radford and Coastal Carolina to advance. In the season opener, they beat Limestone College by two points, a narrow escape against a school that, as well-traveled as I have been, I had never heard of.

They didn't fare well against teams that are in other post-season tournaments. They were beaten by 36 points against Clemson (NCAA), 19 by Appalachian State (CIT), 17 by Cincinnati (NIT), 16 by North Carolina State (NIT), and 20 by Eastern Kentucky (CBI). What we're trying to say is that this is not a program at the same level it was when Gregg Marshall (now coach at Wichita State) was patrolling the sidelines; when they were a spoiler for many teams, made regular trips to the Big Dance, once beat Notre Dame in the tournament, and even appeared in the Top 25 for a time.

To many, it might be surprising that Winthrop, after some its small-school success, has been relegated to the play-in. To us, it's a surprise that they are laying points in the NCAA basketball betting odds. The Golden Lions got off to an inauspicious start, losing their first 11 games (we were wondering if anybody with a worse start than Jackson State got to the post-season, so here's our answer0, but you have to remember that they played their first 14 games away from home, and played a number of capable opponents, including UTEP, Akron, Arizona State, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Kansas State, all in a row! After all that, you know they weren't going to be intimidated by anything, and indeed they dominated most foes in the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC), sweeping to the tournament title while giving up a total of 82 points in the last two games.