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NCAA Tournament Predictions: #13 Murray State Hopes to Upset #4 Vanderbilt

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The Murray State Racers have at least one fan in their corner heading into their showdown with Vanderbilt Commodores this afternoon. President Obama actually picked the Racers to upset Vanderbilt on his NCAA Tournament Bracket.

There’s some validity to the President’s choice. Murray State goes into the tournament with a 30 and 4 straight-up record. They won 9 out of their last 10 games. They went 4 and 6 ATS during those 10 games, however, and ended the regular season with a 14-13-2 ATS record.

Vanderbilt, who got no love from Mr. Obama, finished 2 nd in the SEC East behind the #1 seeded team in the East Bracket, the Kentucky Wildcats. Vandy finished their regular season with a 7 and 3 straight-up record in their final 10 games. They went 5 and 5 against the spread in those 10 games and produced a 15 and 14 overall record ATS.

Murray State isn’t receiving love just from the President. Considering that this game pits a #13 vs. a #4, the NCAAB odds sure are on the light side.

Murray State Racers +3 -110 O 140 ½ -110
Vanderbilt Commodores -3 -110` U 140 ½ -110

Game-day: 3/18/2010

Tip-off: 2:30 pm EST

Neither team has a real edge trend wise in this game.

  • The Murray State Racers are 3 and 12 ATS in their last 15 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
  • The Murray State Racers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
  • The Vanderbilt Commodores are 3 and 7 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
  • The Vanderbilt Commodores are 5 and 2 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.

Murray State Racers can put up a lot of the points. The Racers average 77.5 points per game. They shoot 50% from the field. They spread the ball around too because their top scorer, Ivan Aska, averages only 10.6 points per game.

On defense, Murray State has been terrific this season. Yes, their competition has been suspect, but the Racers’ defensive numbers are still impressive. Murray State allows only 60.5 points per game on average. Teams shoot only 38% from the field on average per game against them.

Vandy’s chances on winning this game rests on the shoulders of Jermaine Beal. The 6’3” 205 lb guard averages 14.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game. Beal scored 28 against Georgia, 20 against Tennessee and 21 against South Carolina in 3 out of the Commodore’s last 10 games. He scored in double figures in 8 out of those last 10 games. He figures to score in double-figures on Thursday even though Murray State’s defense looks so tough.

There are two ways to think about this game. The first is to assume that Vandy played in an overrated conference against overrated foes and therefore is an overrated team. The second is to assume that Jermaine Beal is just too good for anybody on Murray State’s team to handle.

I’m going to side with Beal. Every year a surprise player becomes a star during the NCAA Tournament. This year, that surprise player could be Jermaine Beal.

I’m going to bet that the Commodores cover the spread.

Pick: Vanderbilt -3