NIT Betting Pick: Jackson State vs Mississippi State

When you look at Mississippi State's season, the team did have a case to be included in the NCAA tournament, though not an ironclad one.

The Bulldogs were disappointed at the outset when Renardo Sidney, the fabulous freshman prospect who was supposed to combine with Jarvis Varnado up front to help this team get to the Final Four, was ruled ineligible by the NCAA. Even so, after early-season wins over the likes of Old Dominion, UCLA and Ole Miss, this was seen as a team that certainly could make some noise in the post-season.

They are making noise - and what you hear are groans.

Jackson State Tigers (19-12 SU, 3-1 ATS) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (23-11 SU, 16-12-1 ATS)

NIT Opening Round
Tuesday, March 16 - 10 PM ET

NCAA Basketball Betting Odds:  MISSISSIPPI STATE -22

Here are some of the college basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• JST has won 13 of its last 14 games SU
• MSU has covered five of its last seven games
• MSU has won 13 of its last 15 games SU
• MSU has played four of its last six home games OVER the total

Mississippi State lost too many games to borderline teams as the season progressed: Alabama, Arkansas, Western Kentucky, Auburn. That's why even though they scored SEC tournament victories over Florida and Vanderbilt, who are in the tournament, then took Kentucky to overtime in the SEC title game, they were left out in the cold.

Certainly they hold the fundamental edges in a matchup like this, but you have to be very careful of these teams who were angry about their abandonment by the NCAA Committee, especially if everybody is telling them they had such a strong case.

Then to make it doubly difficult, they have to turn around within two days after that very tough loss against the Wildcats, as they are all no doubt asking each other what went wrong and telling each other what could have been.

To compound matters, they are playing a Jackson State team that has had a bizarre season. I don't know how many teams lost their first ten games of the year but still made it to any level of post-season play, but Jackson State is in that category.

The Tigers were beaten pretty badly by all of the major conference schools they played - 29 points by Memphis, 17 by Alabama, 30 by Baylor, 53 by Tulsa, 16 by Nebraska. However, they have won 19 of their last 21, capturing the SWAC (Southwestern Athletic Conference) regular season title, which got them an automatic bid into the NIT.

Certainly MSU has the defensive enforcer in Varnado (4.8 blocks, 10.3 rebounds per game) and sufficient three-point shooting to extend a margin. But do they have anything left in the physical or emotional tank at this moment? Jackson State is also located in Mississippi, but these teams haven't played each other in over seven years.

I imagine JSU will be pumped up for the opportunity, and guard Garrison Johnson will be a tough guy for Mississippi State to defend. In a small play, we'll take a lot of points with Jackson State, the 22-point underdog.

JAY'S PLAY: JACKSON STATE +22 *

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)