NIT Semis from MSG - Baylor Bears vs. San Diego State Aztecs

NCAA Basketball Sports Betting
San Diego State Aztecs (26-9 SU, 19-11-2 ATS)

NIT Semi-Finals (@ New York)
Tuesday, March 31

BetUS NCAA Basketball Sports Betting Odds:  BAYLOR -1, Total 136

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• BAY has covered five of its last seven games
• BAY is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games
• BAY has won six of its last seven games SU
• BAY has played 11 of its last 14 games UNDER the total
• SDSU has covered six of its last seven games
• SDSU has won eight of its last nine games SU
• SDSU has played four of its last five gamesd UNDER the total
  
  

Both of these teams obviously come into this game on a pointspread uptick; Baylor has covered five of its last seven, while San Diego State is on a 6-1 ATS run. The Aztecs came within a whisker of winning the Mountain West title in Las Vegas, and had a real argument for making the NCAA field. It's been an eventful year for coach Steve Fisher, who has won a national championship in the past with Michigan. He's had to endure injuries, as well as disciplinary issues, but his team did not fade when things got tough. Three straight wins came in the NIT, the latest over a Saint Mary's club that was looking very good coming into last Wednesday's contest.

Baylor has ridden great shooting to get where they are. The Bears revived their hopes in the Big 12 tourney with a win over Texas, but didn't get the bid. They have shot 61% against Georgetown, almost 62% against Virginia Tech and 50% against Auburn, hitting 25 three-pointers in that time.

In evaluating this game, it is important to note that San Diego State won all its NIT games at home, where the Aztecs compiled a 12-5-2 ATS mark this year. That's the way the NIT is structured; teams host games until the semis at the Garden. In contrast, Baylor, after a thrilling win over Georgetown in Waco, had to travel to two tough venues to beat Virginia Tech and Auburn, two squads who were playing very hard and looking to make their own statement about being shut out of an at-large bid by the NCAA's.

We respect San Diego State's experience, as they have four seniors playing key roles. One of them is Lorrenzo Wade, a Louisville transfer who has not had the hot hand, hitting just eight of 24 shots (33%) in the last two games. The problem is that the Aztecs will be counting on his size against the smallish Baylor five. Tim Shelton, another big guy, has hit only five field goals in the entire tournament. Thankfully, Billy White has bounced back from injuries to shoot 72% in the NIT.

This can not be a perimeter-oriented game for San Diego State, because its guards can not keep up with Baylor's backcourt, which has all kinds of people who can hit the three, and has senior leadership in Curtis Jerrells and Henry Dugat. Don't discount the inside presence of burly Kevin Rogers, who has averaged 17 points and seven rebounds to give the Bears some balance.

We think the Aztecs have an edge on defense, but Baylor is quicker and shoots a lot better. There on a shooting roll right now, and has shown the toughness to go into enemy territory and win while San Diego State hasn't left home yet in the NIT. We'll take Baylor and lay the point in the BetUS Sportsbook.

JAY'S PLAY:  BAYLOR -1
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)