Road to the Final Four - (12) Arizona vs. (1) Louisville

With the college basketball season winding down, Sweet 16 match-up when the upstart #12 Arizona Wildcats (21-13, 20-13 ATS) clash with the #1 Louisville Cardinals (30-5, 21-14 ATS). The winner of this game will take on the winner of the Michigan State/Kansas game for a ticket to the Final Four on Sunday in Detroit.

The oddsmakers are expecting to see the top seed roll in this one, as the Cards are hefty nine-point favorites, while the ‘total’ has risen to 139 after opening at 136.5. SU wise, Arizona’s been very poor as an underdog evidenced by its pathetic 4-11 mark. They did however churn out a miniscule return by cashing CBB bettor’s tickets in eight of those contests. Louisville won 27 of the 32 games it was favored in this year, and posted a decent return by managing an 18-14 ATS overall mark. When taking a look at each team’s performances on a neutral court this season, AZ owns the edge. They went a stellar 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS, while Louisville went 6-2 SU & 3-5 ATS.

The debate is still there as to whether the Wildcats really deserved a spot in the or not, but one thing is certainly not debatable. The Cats have earned their spot in the Sweet 16. With tight lines in both contests, Arizona rolled over both Utah (84-71) and Cleveland State (71-57) with ease en route to the third round of the tourney. G Nic Wise has done just about everything for the Cats in this tournament. He has scored an average of 24 points per game, and dished out ten assists to go along with six boards.

Though the numbers at both the offensive and defensive ends of the court have been acceptable for Arizona bettors, the bottom line is that the team has been too inconsistent this season to be considered a legitimate threat to be the last team standing come April 6th. Aside from that, #12 seeds have had absolutely no luck at this juncture of the tournament. Since 2005, #12’s are 0-4 SU and ATS in the Sweet 16. In fact, the last time a team came out of the 12th seed to advance to the Elite 8 was Missouri back in 2002; no team on the 12-line has ever beaten a #1 seed.

The Cardinals will be out to make sure the NCAAB betting trend continues on Friday night. Sure, Cardinals bettors haven’t been the happiest in this tournament (0-2 ATS), but the bottom line is that Head Coach Rick Pitino’s squad keeps doing the little things to advance. The ‘Ville is the second favorite on the board to win the whole thing (+550), and deservedly so.

F Terrence Williams has done just about everything for the Cards all season, and has been even better in the tourney. The forward has scored 37 points, brought down 24 boards, and dished out seven assists in two victories thus far. He’s also the best thief on the defensive end of the floor, as he led the squad with 2.4 steals per game on the season. Arizona will be hard-pressed to find someone that can contain Williams on either end of the court.

The bottom line with this game is that it’s men against boys. Arizona’s happy to have silenced its critics, while the Cardinals have their eyes fixed on the Motor City. It’s a hefty number to lay, but a total domination by the higher seed is likely in the “Cards”.

Rose’s Recommendation: 3* Louisville Cardinals (-9)

(Rating Scale: 1* - 5*)