South Bracket Betting Picks - #14 Sam Houston State vs. #3 Baylor
by Tim Furious
You’re going to hear a lot about Baylor because they’re a betting favorite amongst the experts. A 16-9 ATS record this season is a big reason there’s a smart contingent of basketball bettors behind them, and the fact that the spread has dropped by 1.5-points in this game is only going to make it more attractive. When they play the Sam Houston State Bearkats tonight, the Baylor Bears will be out to prove that they’re deserving of a three-seed despite faltering in the Big 12 Tournament.
The oddsmakers have had to get wise with Baylor not because the college basketball betting public has lobbied behind them, but because the sharks have been throwing tons of money at them. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and were winners of five straight before losing to Kansas State last week.
One of the major reasons to love Baylor in the tournament is because of head coach Scott Drew, now in his 7 th year at the helm. He has a great system that runs around strong athletes. With LaceDarius Dunn in the fold, the Bears stand a great chance of closing this spread simply because Dunn is they kind of scorer that unloads when he wants to. Dunn averaged 19.6 points per game this season and ended the season with a 25.0 point per game average in his final three outings.
#14 Sam Houston State Bearkats (25-7) vs. #3 Baylor Bears (25-7)
Thursday, March 18 th --- New Orleans Arena --- 2:45pm EST
NCAAB Betting Line: Baylor -11 (150)
The Sam Houston State Bearkats won the Southland Conference handedly, but that’s such a crapshoot bunch of teams to begin with that it shouldn’t impress anyone. In the tournament they were just 1-2 ATS and there weren’t many moments to bet on this team because – let’s face it – not too many gave two hoots about the Bearkats.
Baylor faced double-digit spread three times this season and went 3-0 ATS in those games. Those games featured spreads of -13.2 on average and Baylor closed those betting lines by an average point differential of +21.7 points. Can you see why the experts like them so much?
Sending messages is often the major priority of small programs who enter the tournament as a top-three seed. Look for Baylor to wipe the floor with Sam Houston State and get on to business as they keep their focus square on Duke. I’m telling you now that Baylor is a team that can make you some major money and when you have metrics like Baylor’s ability to close big betting lines, you have to get on the bandwagon.
Furious Free Pick: Baylor -11 (OVER)
