Xavier vs Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Tourney

Xavier is the best team in the A-10 as far as covering in the NCAA basketball lines, at 19-10 ATS, including a blistering 17-6 ATS mark as the favorite. Mostly due to the seven-game win streak they ended the regular season with, the Musketeers are considered by most to have clinched a spot in the 65-team NCAA field, although the meaningful out-of-conference wins weren't there, with defeats suffered at the hands of Marquette, Baylor, Kansas State, Butler and Wake Forest. Xavier also lost to conference rival Temple in their only meeting with the Owls.

Xavier Musketeers (23-7 SU, 19-10 ATS) vs. Dayton Flyers (20-11 SU, 14-14 ATS)
Atlantic 10 Tournament @ Atlantic City
Friday, March 12 - 6:30 PM ET
NCAA Basketball Line: XAVIER -3

Here are some of the NCAA betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• DAY has lost four of its last six games SU
• DAY has covered two of its last eight games
• DAY has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• XAV has won its last seven games SU
• XAV has covered nine of its last 12 games

Because Dayton played so badly down the stretch, with conference losses to Duquesne, Temple, Richmond and Saint Louis in their last six games, the general belief is that they have played themselves out of any consideration for an at-large NCAA berth. Even though they did beat Georgia Tech and Old Dominion, the Flyers missed opportunities against New Mexico, Villanova and Kansas State that would have scored points in the RPI.

Here are some of the head-to-head NCAA basketball betting trends for this game:

• XAV has won eight of the last ten meetings SU
• DAY has covered four of the last five meetings
• Four of the last five meetings have gone OVER the total
• XAV has had the shooting edge in eight of the last ten meetings
• XAV has had the rebounding edge in five of the last eight meetings
• XAV has made more three-pointers in eight of the last nine meetings

These teams split two meetings this season. On January 16, Xavier had to hit a sizzling 10-for-19 from the arc to pull out a 78-74 win in Cincinnati, but Dayton, paced by 16 rebounds by Chris Johnson and nine more from Chris Wright, held a commanding 48-29 edge on the boards. In the rematch, Xavier had less luck from three-point range (8-for-23) and Dayton had the hot hand, getting off to a 17-3 lead before cruising to a 90-65 romp. The Flyers once again dominated the boards with a 40-23 advantage.

I respect what Jason Love can do for Xavier, but I don't know that Dayton doesn't give them a lot of problems with size. The results between the two this season would seem to offer some evidence to that effect, and Dayton has some depth, with three reserves averaging at least 18 minutes a game. The Flyers are +6.6 in the rebounding category overall, and have potentially the best player on the floor in Wright, who was a legitimate star recruit and though a first-team A-10 selection, had the ability to be even better. This team may have gotten some confidence in their first-round victory over George Washington. Okay, maybe they didn't. But we'll take the three points anyway in the NCAA basketball lines.

JAY'S PLAY: DAYTON +3 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)