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Coach Brown misses Vince

Poll after preseason-poll is hitting cyberspace and the newsstands right about now throwing caution and thoughtful analysis to the wind and predicting that last-year’s favorites lead the list of those expected to excel in 2006. Based presumably on the ether of 2005 success, pundits speak passionately the names of Ohio State, Texas, USC and LSU when disclosing their list of Top-10 teams for 2006.

Why…?

With due respect to each of these tradition-rich programs, their outstanding staffs and rabid fans, there is little logic and fewer facts to back up such lofty picks for the upcoming football season. Supporters might mumble something about effective and knowledgeable staffs but a coaching staff is but one ingredient in the stew of success. Among the other vital ingredients are player leadership, systems (whether they fit the team’s returning personnel and whether they match-up well with conference foes), talent-level, returning experience, and chemistry (within and between the players and the staff).

Systems require players who are willing and able to learn the overall scheme and who have the wherewithal and athleticism to pull if off. Not every system is a match with a given set of players and an unsuccessful attempt to merge the two is neither an indictment on the system or the players but, instead, on the stubborn waste of time and effort spent trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. When the system works best, eleven starters achieve a synergy and work, move, strike and respond as one. When the system works poorly, eleven starters move disjointedly without rhythm, combined strength or effect.

Collegiate offensive and defensive systems are complicated enough that only repetition after precious repetition can make a new starter comfortable with his new assignment and, as important, the other 10 starters comfortable with his strengths and weaknesses. When new starters are inserted into several different positions on a unit, the pursuit of comfort and effect becomes that much more complex. When there are more new starters than returning starters, frustration becomes a fact of life in the spring and preseason and patience truly becomes a virtue.

With this as a background, then, consider the enormous rebuilding projects which the staffs of Ohio State, USC, Texas, and LSU must tackle this season and how unlikely it is that any of these teams will challenge for the national championship contrary to what many “experts” currently predict. Odds are strong that most of these programs will not even crack the Top-10 by season’s end.

Ohio State: Nine Buckeyes were taken in this year’s draft. The lost starters included the 1st and 3rd linebackers taken in the draft (AJ Hawk and Bobby Carpenter), the 1st center (Nick Mangold); the 1st wide-receiver (Santonio Holmes) and the 2nd safety (Donte Wintner). Those who were lost were not simply steady performers – they were superstars.

Ohio State’s stellar 2005 defensive unit lost its entire front-seven and two of its defensive backs to graduation or early-leaps to the NFL. And while numerous starters return to the Buckeye offense this season, most notably QB Troy Smith (4,142 yds Total Offense; 37 TD’s (24 passing; 13 rushing), RB Antonio Pittman (1,712 yds, 8 TD’s) and all-everything Ted Ginn, Jr. (1,162 yds receiving; 5 punt returns for touchdowns; 1 kickoff return for touchdown), the few lost starters from that unit were elite players (again, the 1st center and wide receiver taken in the draft [Mangold and Holmes, respectively] as well as OG, Rob Sims, who was taken in the 4th round by Seattle).

Opposing defenses will crowd the line of scrimmage all year unless the offense can fill the craters left in the line by the loss of Mangold and Sims and also find a new primary receiver. More important, it is psychotic to think that the defense can repeat as the nation’s leader in rushing defense (and 5th in total and scoring defense) with nine new starters. The defensive success contributed to the offensive success, and vice versa. With opponents unable to run the ball last year, offensive drives sputtered, keeping the hyper-capable Buckeye offense on the field. On average, OSU held the ball for four minutes more than opposing offenses.

This year’s Buckeye offense will have to create its own opportunities, which will certainly happen at the hands of Smith, Ginn and Pittman. However, for the foregoing reasons, those opportunities will not be automatic like fans came to expect in 2005.

Last season, OSU’s offense operated without pressure because everyone knew its defense would consistently stop drives. This season, that comfort level will be gone. The offense will have to produce for Ohio State to win. Period.

The schedule-makers were not particularly generous to the Buckeyes. While they open the season with an easy match-up against Northern Illinois, they travel to Texas in week 2 and then play Penn State at home and travel to Iowa in weeks 4 and 5, respectively. OSU will field bushels of new starters in 2006. With that schedule, they better grow up in a hurry.

Pundits predict Ohio State will end 2006 as the National Champions. Rational analysis leads to a different prediction. It is not at all difficult to pick two losses out of next year’s schedule. That won’t win the Sugar. In fact, it probably won’t qualify the Buckeyes to join the BCS party at season’s end.

Southern Cal: USC lost eleven starters to the NFL, including the last two Heisman Trophy winners. On offense alone, they must replace QB Matt Leinart, TB’s Reggie Bush and Lendale White, TE Dominique Byrd, and linemen Winston Justice, Duece Lutui and Fred Mutua.

And while young Trojans try to take the reins and pick up where their legendary predecessors left off, they must now tackle that project while simultaneously navigating through the negative publicity and public scrutiny related to a trio of off-the-field scandals, including the living arrangements of Reggie Bush’s parents, the living arrangements of wideout Dwayne Jarrett, and the sexual assault allegations against Matt Lienart’s heir-apparent, Mark Sanchez. At a minimum, the distractions figure to hinder the production of Jarrett and Sanchez next season, which is a problem since spring came to a close with great expectations having been placed on their respective shoulders.

Given the high volume of starters to be replaced combined with the sheer distraction created by the off-field controversies, Pete Carroll and his staff will have their mettle tested for the first time in three years. Rather than simply pet egos and figure out ways to get the ball to a myriad of superstars, the staff will have to deflect media criticism, deal with inevitable investigations, insert new starters, and scale-back systems to hide weaknesses in the lineup and to accommodate the slowest learners of the new starters.

The absence of Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush cannot be overstated. The confidence they brought to the huddle last season was immeasurable. Leinart simply knew how to win. Bush simply knew how to make plays.

Of course, focusing solely on the loss of Bush and Leinart ignores the lost impact of the five other offensive starters who now join Leinart and Bush in the NFL and who brought elite skills and confidence to the field. The 2005 USC offense was as blended and unified and high-powered as you may ever find at the collegiate level. The new starters will certainly be talented but they will not truly replace what the Trojans just lost.

If the Pac-10 was not such a relatively weak conference, it would seem no stretch to predict that USC will not win it next season. Still, Arizona and Arizona State will be much improved and UCLA’s hatred of the Trojans can never be underestimated. For USC next season, the Pac-10 championship is no sure-thing.

Yet, even if USC wins its conference, their non-conference match-ups against Arkansas (season-opener at Fayetteville), Nebraska and Notre Dame (both in L.A.), make it easy to picture three losses in 2006. In fact, as strange as it may sound, USC simply has too many starters to replace, too many distractions to allow the rebuilding project to proceed smoothly and too much revenge to face in the season-opener (Arkansas, with 10 returning offensive starters, including likely All-SEC tailback Darren McFadden, will be looking for blood to avenge last year’s humiliating defeat [70-17] and will be debuting a brand-new offense with no film available from which to prepare) to be certain that it can make it to week 2 undefeated.

Regardless of which two teams are playing for all the marbles in the BCS Championship Game on January 8th, you can bet that USC’s players and coaches will be watching them at home along with the rest of the nation.

Texas: The quartet of Selvin Young, Ramonce Taylor, Henry Melton and Jamaal Charles combined last season for a total of 2,284 yards and 41 TD’s. Thus, when 2005 ended, it appeared Mack Brown had little to worry about with this stable full of horses available to fill in the rushing gap left by the departure of VinceYoung (1,050 yards; 12 TD’s).

Today, it is safe to remove Taylor’s name from the list. Having been arrested this Spring for possession of a very large bag of marijuana, whether he will ever carry the ball again for the Longhorns is, for now, the least of his concerns.

Of the remaining tailback candidates, only Selvin Young focused solely on tailback duties this Spring. Charles juggled football with track (his 4x100 team posted the second fastest relay time this year), though the sprinting was surely calculated to help hone his already blazing top-end speed and explosiveness. Meanwhile, Melton, who is a monstrous tailback at 6’3”, 270 pounds, juggled time at defensive end along with his rushing duties.

Young, Charles and Melton will willingly take advantage of Taylor’s absence this fall. However, given Charles’ history of injuries (including ankle problems last season) there is a very real chance that he will miss part of 2006. Thus, depending upon Melton’s defensive commitments, it could turn out that the lion’s share of the carries next year will fall squarely on Young’s able shoulders.

Regardless, Texas should have little concern about the talent level of its ball-carriers entering 2006. Vince Young’s pure play-making magic may not be duplicated on the ground by this stable of youngsters, but the gap in total production should not be glaring.

The problem is that Vince Young was more than a rushing quarterback; much more. He was the nation’s third most efficient passer (3,036 yards passing; 65% completion rate; 26 TD’s; 10 INT’s) as well as the emotional leader of the team and the literal leader of the offense. That leadership (and the security and confidence it instilled in the team) is lost for 2006. Regardless of whether next year’s starter is Jevan Snead or Colt McCoy, neither freshman will have ever taken a live snap in a college football game prior to this season. Snead and McCoy will have to develop skills and timing and rhythm through the course of the entire season, a process which will be slow and frustrating rather than confidence-inspiring if Coach Brown follows through on his promise to play both throughout the season.

Plus, two outstanding members of the offensive line (OG Will Allen and OT Jonathan Scott) have to be replaced this season as does Vince Young’s favorite target from a year ago, TE David Thomas (though youngster Jermichael Finley showed sparks of greatness this spring). The Texas offense will not sputter and die in 2006, but it will not be nearly as productive as it was in 2005. Few offenses will ever be so productive.

Fortunately, for Texas, its defense should be outstanding. Pain from the loss of DT Rodrique Wright will be relieved by the maturation of several outstanding defensive line prospects (e.g., preseason All-American candidate Frank Okam and last year’s Big-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year, Brian Orakpo). The linebackers are talented but generally unproven and, for a defending National Champion, curiously unknown. They will certainly miss last year’s leader, MLB Aaron Harris. Yet, the most glaring hole in the defense is that left by the departure of safety Michael Huff. Quite simply, what he provided the defense cannot be replaced. Still, defensive coordinator Gene Chizik knows how to squeeze productivity out of his players and it would be silly to suggest that Texas will not field a solid stop-unit this season; particularly when they will have no problem controlling the line of scrimmage in most match-ups.

Texas will be no pushover next season and should win more than its share of football games (particularly given its non-conference slate of North Texas, Rice and Sam Houston State). Still, given the sheer scale of the Longhorns’ rebuilding project and the lack of experience under center (exacerbated by current plans to play both freshman throughout the season), showdowns with Oklahoma and a road trip to Nebraska appear to be certain losses in 2006 and the home game against Ohio State in week 2 is anything but a “gimme.” By most measures, one would have to predict that the Longhorns will not get the chance to defend their championship at the end of 2006. Worse, there is a good chance that they will end the season ranked outside of the Top 10.

Louisiana State: Nobody doubts Les Miles’ ability to coach football. But given the importance of developing continuity and rhythm in a team’s offensive and defensive units during the Spring, it is critical to note that the Bayou Bengals were simply unable to achieve either due to the vast scale of the current rebuilding project and the absence of so many of the pieces of the puzzle due to injury this offseason.

Heading into Spring, LSU had to replace four offensive linemen (including freshly-minted NFL rookies LT Andrew Whitworth and RG Nate Livings) and three defensive linemen (including both DT’s, Claude Wroten and Kyle Williams, who were each selected in the most recent draft [3rd and 5th rounds, respectively]). In all, the Tigers lost seven offensive starters and six defensive starters making its rebuilding effort formidable at best.

The project was made infinitely more difficult by the large mass of injuries which hit the team this Spring. Coach Miles estimated that 11 or 12 starters were missing from the Spring Game. Four of the tailbacks at or near the top of the depth chart missed all or part of spring (Alley Broussard, Justin Vincent, R.J. Jackson and FB, Steven Korte). That left Jacob Hester to take the majority of snaps with the first unit. Assuming any combination of the others heal in time for fall and earn snaps with the first unit, Hester’s carries will have done little to help the offense develop the aforementioned continuity and rhythm.

Even worse is the log jam at quarterback. It is possible that last year’s starter, Jamarcus Russell, who missed the entire spring, will return from injury this fall. As with the tailbacks, Russell’s return will ruin whatever continuity and rhythm was generated by the patch-work offensive unit during spring practices.

For all that appears, the Tigers will start their offensive preparation from scratch this fall. Not the ideal way to attack an upcoming season when odds are already stacked against you by simple virtue of your membership in one of the nation’s toughest conferences – the SEC.

Fortunately for LSU, several youngsters on defense made great strides this spring, including DT Marlon Favorite. Unfortunately for LSU, while they open the season with a cakewalk match-up at home against Louisiana-Lafayette (though, it should be pointed out that the Ragin’ Cajuns are the defending Sun Belt Conference champions), their breather is short-lived as they then host Arizona before traveling to Auburn for their conference-opener. They will have little time to develop their offensive personality before being put to the test by a feisty Mike Stoops-led Wildcat defense and a blazing-fast Auburn defense led by new coordinator, Will Muschamp (he of former LSU Head Coach Nick Saban’s staff with the Miami Dolphins).

With trips to Gainesville and Knoxville mixed in along with LSU’s annual contests against Alabama and Auburn, the Bayou Bengals will not escape conference play unscathed. Defense will keep them in games but they will not be able to dominate the line of scrimmage early enough to beat Auburn and the sheer lack of experience will not be enough to carry them to wins on the road in The Swamp and at Neyland Stadium. Like USC and Texas and Ohio State, odds are strong that LSU will not finish 2006 in the Top 10.

Brock Murphy is a top NCAA football writer. You can reach him at: bgmurphy91@yahoo.com. Listen to Brock every Thursday at 2:30pm EST on www.BetUSradio.com.