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Jays singing this year

With apologies to Charles Dickens (who had a reputation of being tough to guard with his back to the basket), this is the best of times and the worst of times for handicappers.

Now that the college football season is over, bettors across the continent are shifting their focus to basketball. The crowded marketplace makes it more difficult to find a bargain. But for those who do their homework and shop around, there’s nothing quite as satisfying as coming up with a winning team at a good value. That’s a big reason why some of the lesser-known conferences – the “mid-majors” – are getting more attention in the mainstream media these days.

The Missouri Valley Conference (MVC) has been receiving plenty of buzz after some solid non-conference performances against marquee programs. They regularly place more than one team in the NCAA Tournament. But can they get you to the pay window during conference action? Let’s go down to the Valley and have a look.

Southern Illinois Salukis (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS)

The Salukis are no strangers to the spotlight, making the Sweet 16 in 2002 and getting invited to the big dance ever since. This year may be different. The Salukis had a tough time at the Great Alaska Shootout, and although they’ve rattled off seven straight wins (covering and going under every time), the team is down to four players on athletic scholarship with the departure of junior guard Mike Dale. The Salukis do have a lot of promise, however, and they should be excellent value next year if they happen to take a step back in 2006.

Northern Iowa Panthers (11-2 SU, 6-4 ATS)

UNI is the team of choice in the Valley right now, sporting non-con wins over Iowa and LSU. That attention may have hurt the Panthers at the pay window; after a tasty 6-1 ATS start, they’ve dropped the cash in three straight outings. But there’s no denying the talent NIU brings to the table this year as the program goes for a third straight NCAA tournament bid. The Panthers return five of their best players and are ranked 17th in RPI to start the New Year. The development of sophomore forward Eric Coleman will be key to NIU’s chances going forward – he’s netting 12.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per game after being named the MVC Freshman of the Year.

Missouri State Bears (9-2 SU, 7-3 ATS)

It’s going to take a lot more than pepper spray to stop these Bears. The Program Formerly Known as Southwest Missouri State loses three seniors (two of them starters) from last year’s NIT squad. But junior guard Blake Ahearn has stepped up big-time since joining the starting lineup. He’s been good for 19.7 points per game, canning 42.5 percent of his trey attempts and 90 percent of his free throws. Although coach Barry Hinson’s teams are known for staunch defense, Ahearn’s emergence has the Bears scoring 86.4 points per game to lead the conference and drive the over to a 8-2 mark. Missouri St. also leads the MVC in the RPI standings at No. 11.

Creighton Bluejays (7-4 SU, 4-5 ATS)

Something’s wrong in Omaha – or, more correctly, away from Omaha. After narrowly losing to West Virginia in the first round of the NCAA tourney, Creighton has kicked off the new season with four losses in five road games, including its first two MVC matchups against Illinois State and Bradley. The Bluejays also went 1-4 ATS in those games to become the only team in the conference with a losing record at the pay window. Perfect. Creighton should recover nicely once the club gets some of its injured players back into the lineup. There has to be some concern, though, about senior guard Nate Funk and his injured shoulder. Funk was leading the team with 17 points per game, albeit in just six outings; he was slated to meet with Dr. James Andrews to determine the extent of his injury. If Funk is able to return, that makes Creighton even more tempting as a bounce-back pick.