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Orangemen playing well

Can I play with Madness?

The field of 65 has been set for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. There were some surprise snubs left on the outside and a handful of weak sisters allowed into the dance, but the folks on the selection committee have still given us a tremendous-looking bracket.

Across the nation, people were waking up Monday morning to the sound of office copiers cranking out reams and reams of Tournament brackets. Now we get to fill them out. The basics of keeping your bracket intact are well-known: No top-seed has ever lost in the first round, so feel free to write in the Duke Blue Devils, Connecticut Huskies, Villanova Wildcats and Memphis Tigers to advance. As well, at least one No. 1 seed has reached the Final Four in each of the past 25 years – but never all four.

Upsets will happen. The trick is to find the right place to look, and while the 4-13 seed matchup has earned a reputation for producing some shocking results, the 5-12 matchup is college basketball’s “new black.” At least one No. 5 seed has gone down to defeat in each of the last five years, going just 11-9 straight up. Think back to 2004, when the celebrated Manhattan Jaspers, to nobody’s surprise, beat the Florida Gators. That’s the kind of game we’re looking for in 2006. Let’s take a look at the bracket and see who Number Twelve works for, going from least to most likely.

Minneapolis: No. 5 Nevada Wolf Pack vs. No. 12 Montana Grizzlies

Well, someone from the Big Sky Conference had to get an invitation. That would be the Grizzlies this year, owners of a No. 61 RPI and a woeful No. 186 SOS. This team should have been given a 15-seed at best. Instead, the Grizz get to face a Nevada club that beat the Kansas Jayhawks earlier this season.

Oakland: No. 5 Pittsburgh Panthers vs. No. 12 Kent State Golden Flashes

Two chances for KSU: slim and none. The Flashes are all about senior leadership and high-volume shooting, which can be dangerous for typical No. 5 seeds. The Panthers are anything but typical. They’ve come out of a very tough Big East conference at No. 11 in RPI. Pittsburgh could go far in the big dance. Maybe even Final Four far.

Atlanta: No. 5 Syracuse Orange vs. No. 12 Texas A&M Aggies

Now we’re getting somewhere. The Orange were on their way to the NIT until they caught fire in the Big East tourney, winning four games in four days and upsetting three ranked teams: UConn, the Georgetown Hoyas, and Pittsburgh. Which leads to the natural question: Is this the real Orange team, or is it the one that went 4-9 SU and 3-10 against the spread to finish the regular season?

Conversely, the Aggies have been on fire for a while. Since February, they’ve gone 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS, beating up on nearly everyone in the Big 12. But “nearly everyone” didn’t include Kansas, the Texas Longhorns or the Oklahoma Sooners, the three teams who finished above Texas A&M in the conference. The Aggies were 1-5 SU against teams in the Top 25 of the RPI, and 20-3 against Nos. 51 and below. Syracuse goes into the big dance at No. 17. Do the math, and it doesn’t look too good for A&M.

Washington, D.C.: No. 5 Washington Huskies vs. No. 12 Utah State Aggies.

There is plenty of promise for an upset here. The Huskies looked ready for the Ol’ Yeller treatment back in early February after dropping three straight road games, but they got their groove back with eight wins in a row (6-2 ATS) to end the regular season. And then it all fell apart again with a first-round upset by the Oregon Ducks in the Pac-10 tourney. Bleah. Useless historical note: The Huskies lost to the No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats back in 1985.

Are the “other” Aggies good enough to take advantage? UW appears to be vulnerable to larger teams, and history shows that imposing frontcourts are key for No. 12s to advance. That’s exactly what Utah State brings in power forward Nate Harris (the team’s top player with 17.2 points and 7.5 rebounds per game) and center Cass Matheus (9.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg), a pair of seniors who play solid man-to-man defense in the post. They will give the so-so Huskies a run for their money.

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