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Will Reggie dominate?

ROSE BOWL - Pasadena, California January 4, 2006, at 8 p.m. ET ABC

Rose Bowl: 89,063

BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2

Bowl Matchup: USC vs. Texas

Southern Cal Trojans

Coach: Pete Carroll (5th year)

Conference: Pacific 10

Record: 12-0

ATS: 6-6-0

O/U: 7-5

Bowl History:

2004 Orange Oklahoma W 55-19 (-3, 54)

2003 Rose Michigan W 28-14 (-7, 58)

2002 Orange Iowa W 38-17 (-4.5, 55.5)

2001 Las Vegas Utah L 6-10 (-3.5, 43.5)

1998 Sun TCU L 19-28 (-17.5, 43.5)

1995 Rose Northwestern W 41-32 (3)

1994 Cotton Texas Tech W 55-14

1993 Freedom Utah W 28-21

1992 Freedom Fresno State L 7-24

1990 Sun Michigan State L 16-17

1989 Rose Michigan W 17-10

Schedule/Results:

September 3 at Hawaii W 63-17 1-0 (0-0)

September 17 Arkansas W 70-17 2-0 (0-0)

September 24 at No. 24 Oregon W 45-13 3-0 (1-0)

October 1 at No. 14 Arizona State W 38-28 4-0 (2-0)

October 8 Arizona W 42-21 5-0 (3-0)

October 15 at No. 9 Notre Dame W 34-31 6-0 (3-0)

October 22 at Washington W 51-24 7-0 (4-0)

October 29 Washington State W 55-13 8-0 (5-0)

November 5 Stanford W 51-21 9-0 (6-0)

November 12 at California W 35-10 10-0 (7-0)

November 19 No. 16 Fresno State W 50-42 11-0 (7-0)

December 3 No. 11 UCLA W 66-19 12-0 (8-0)

Trends:

• USC is second-highest scoring team in the nation at 50.0 points per game
• Southern Cal is 3-6-0 ATS in its last 9 lined games
• After a win are 10-0
• When playing outside conference are 10-0
• When playing on grass are 10-0
• When playing in January are 3-0

It’s another season of championship or bust for the Southern Cal Trojans. Pete Carroll and the Trojans have been the best in the nation for the past two seasons, and anything but a record-setting third straight championship this year would be viewed as a disappointment.

Head coach Carroll has led the Trojans on an incredible, 34-game winning streak, but how have they treated bettors during that that stretch of success? In seasons past, pretty well. However, this year the Trojans haven’t been so kind to their supporters.

In their 12 regular season games in 2005, Southern Cal posted only a 6-6 mark against-the-spread. And despite boasting one of the best offenses in the nation, they haven’t been the OVER monster you might expect, as they sport only a 7-5 over/under mark.

On offense, the Trojans can run up the score with the best of them and rank second in all of college football averaging 50.0 points per game. Defending Heisman Trophy winner and starting quarterback Matt Leinart looks poised to possibly add another trophy to his mantle, but teammate Reggie Bush could have something to say about that.

Leinart has picked up a total of 3,450 passing yards this season. He has also connected for 27 touchdown strikes, while throwing only seven interceptions to compile a stellar 158.3 quarterback rating. One of Leinart’s favorite targets is wideout Dwayne Jarrett, who has hauled in more than half of Leinart’s touchdown passes with 15.

The only thing more dangerous than the Trojans’ aerial attack going into the Rose Bowl might be their ground assault. Bush and backfield mate LenDale White are pretty close to being an unstoppable duo. Bush has rushed for 1,658 yards and 15 touchdowns while averaging 8.9 yards per carry this season. Factor in Bush’s 383 receiving yards and 570 return yards and he becomes one of the most versatile and dangerous players in all of college football.

Things don’t get any easier when Bush isn’t in the backfield because that means White is getting the carries for the Trojans. The junior back has rushed for 1,178 yards and 21 touchdowns so far this year.

Over on defense the Trojans are still good, but they’re not quite the great team that they were last season. During their National Championship run a year ago, the Trojans were the best defensive team in the Pac-10, allowing only 279.3 yards and 13.0 points per game on average. After a number of key defensive components headed to the National Football League (including DT Shaun Cody and LB Lofa Tatupu), the Trojans’ defensive unit took a step back and has surrendered 344.7 yards and 21.3 points per game on average through 12 contests.

One of the biggest declines has been in defending against the rush, where the Trojans held opponents to 79.4 yards per game last season. That total has ballooned to 117.3 yards per game this season.

The defensive shortcomings of Southern Cal haven’t mattered much, though. With Leinart and the offense racking up points like they have, allowing the other team to put up an average of three touchdowns per game has been plenty good enough for the Trojans to roll to victory after victory.

Defense is not the only component of the Trojans that looks weaker this season, as opponents may have finally figured out how to thwart the dangerous Bush on special teams. Last season Bush averaged 15.7 yards with two touchdowns while returning punts, and averaged 25.6 yards on kick returns. This season Bush has been held to only 9.9 yards returning punts and 17.0 yards on kickoffs. The drop in yards may be partially attributable to the fact that opponents are kicking the ball away from Bush more often.

The Trojans of 2005 may not measure up in every way to last year’s squad, but it’s important to note that we’re comparing them to a team that romped to their second straight national championship. Pete Carroll has led Southern Cal into bowl games in each of the last four seasons, and picked up wins in three of those contests.

The Trojans pummelled Oklahoma 55-19 in last year’s Orange Bowl, and dropped Michigan 28-14 in the Rose Bowl the year before that. Southern Cal’s previous two bowl games were a 10-6 loss to Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl in 2001 and a 38-17 victory over Iowa in the Orange Bowl in 2002.

No team has ever won three straight national championship but this is shaping up to be the season that Southern Cal gets a chance to write a remarkable chapter in the history books. Their only roadblock will be the dominant Vince Young and the Texas Longhorns, their opponent in this year’s Rose Bowl. The Longhorns are also unbeaten this season, so the national championship game will be a true battle of the best.

Coach: Mack Brown (8th year)

Conference: Big 12

Record: 10-2

ATS: 6-6-0

O/U: 12-0

Bowl History:

2004 Rose Michigan W 38-37 (-7, 54)

2003 Holiday Washington St. W 28-20 (9, 57.5)

2002 Cotton LSU W 35-20 (-10.5, 46.5)

2001 Holiday Washington W 47-43 (-13.5, 57)

2000 Holiday Oregon L 30-35 (7)

1999 Cotton Arkansas L 6-27 (-6.5)

1998 Cotton Mississippi St W 38-11 (-6.5)

1996 Fiesta Penn St L 15-38 (-1)

1995 Sugar Virginia Tech L 10-28 (-2)

1994 Sun North Carolina W 35-31

1990 Cotton Miami FL L 3-46

1987 Bluebonnet Pittsburgh W 32-27

Schedule/Results:

September 3 La Lafayette W 60-3 1-0 (0-0)

September 10 at No. 4 Ohio State W 25-22 2-0 (0-0)

September 17 Rice W 51-10 3-0 (0-0)

October 1 at Missouri W 51-20 4-0 (1-0)

October 8 Oklahoma W 45-12 5-0 (2-0)

October 15 No. 24 Colorado W 42-17 6-0 (3-0)

October 22 No. 10 Texas Tech W 52-17 7-0 (4-0)

October 29 at Oklahoma State W 47-28 8-0 (5-0) TBS

November 5 at Baylor W 62-0 9-0 (6-0)

November 12 Kansas W 66-14 10-0 (7-0)

November 25 at Texas A&M W 40-29 11-0 (8-0)

December 3 at Colorado W 70-3 12-0 (8-0)

Trends:

• Texas is the highest-scoring team in the nation at 50.9 points per game
• Texas is 10-2-0 ATS in its last 12 lined games
• After a win are 10-0
• When playing outside conference are 10-0
• When playing on grass are 10-0
• When playing in January are 3-2

The Texas Longhorns were a significant force all of last season, finishing with an incredible 11-1 record, but with the way they’re putting up wins this season they’re looking like an indomitable juggernaut.

After posting a slender one-point victory in the Rose Bowl last year, a duplicate result this time around would allow the Longhorns to make their mark as college football’s national champions. Texas looks like they might be well on their way (if they can get past equally dominant Southern Cal, of course) after compiling a perfect 12-0 record in the regular season, a stretch during which they failed to reach the 40-point plateau only once.

The Longhorns have not only pleased their fans with their amazing play so far this season, but they’ve also been a great friend to bettors everywhere. Texas is an astounding 10-2 ATS to this point on the year, and they have been a dream for OVER bettors by posting a perfect 12-0 over/under mark in 2005.

The Longhorns have improved every aspect of their game from a year ago, a task some might have thought was impossible based on last season’s glittering results. The offense belongs to quarterback Vince Young, plain and simple. Young has thrown his name into the Heisman Trophy pool in a big way, by putting up numbers that rival any other signal-caller in college football. He has utilized his dangerous passing arm to the tune of a 63.9 completion percentage for 2,769 yards with 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

But what really makes Young dangerous are his legs. Underneath the torso that is torching secondaries with the passing game are a pair of sticks that would make a lot of running backs envious. The junior pivot has rushed for 850 yards and nine touchdowns on 136 carries this season, for an impressive average of 6.2 yards per carry.

And Young isn’t the only ground option for the Longhorns. Starting running back Jamaal Charles and backup Selvin Young have both battled through ankle injuries and missed time this season, but they have each still put up great numbers. Charles has rushed for 844 yards on 114 carries (averaging 7.4 yards per carry) while finding the end zone 11 times. Selvin Young has only touched the ball 89 times this season, but he has made those touches count for 416 yards and seven touchdowns.

Even with Charles and the other Young hurting, Texas still boasts great depth at the running back position. Ramonce Taylor has shown another gear whenever he’s made it onto the field for the Longhorns and is averaging 7.0 yards per carry and has managed to score 11 touchdowns. As a result the Longhorns are averaging a blistering 50.9 points per game to lead all Division I football teams.

The offense may be top-of-the-heap in college football, but the Longhorns’ defense isn’t half-bad either. A season ago the Longhorns’ defense allowed a stalwart 17.9 points and 320 yards per game. Somehow the Longhorns have improved those numbers this season by holding their opponents to only 14.6 points and 280.3 yards per game on average. The swarming D has kept the opposition to 12 points or less five times this season, including a 62-0 blanking of Baylor on November 5.

As if that wasn’t enough to make opponents quake in their cleats when the Longhorns take the field, Texas also boasts a major weapon on special teams. Aaron Ross on the season has picked up 481 punt return yards, and has also managed to return two punts for major scores. Place-kicker David Pino was successful on 12-of-15 field goal attempts this season for an efficiency rate of 80 percent, including 5-of-5 from 40-49 yards out. He also chipped in with 68-of-72 converts; perhaps his leg was weary during a few of the many blowouts Texas posted this season.

The Longhorns will be making an appearance in a bowl game for the fifth straight year when they arrive at the Rose Bowl to battle Southern Cal. Texas lost the Holiday Bowl 35-30 to Oregon back in 2000, only to return and win the same bowl 47-43 over Washington a year later. Texas has won two of their last three bowl appearances, which included the 2002 Cotton Bowl, a 35-20 win over LSU; the 2003 Holiday Bowl, a 28-20 loss to Washington State; and the 2004 Rose Bowl, an exciting 38-37 win over Michigan.

The Longhorns battled numerous injuries throughout the ranks of their offense and defense earlier in the season, but they appear to have emerged largely unscathed and in some cases players have returned even stronger. The Longhorns have the talent to knock off Southern Cal and claim the national championship for themselves, but remember that same statement was widely applied to the Oklahoma Sooners before last year’s Orange Bowl. And we all know how that game turned out for Oklahoma.

Texas opened as 6-point dogs to the Trojans with the total opening at 75.

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