NCAA F Betting - Connecticut Huskies at North Carolina Tar Heels

The North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a nice win in Miami. On Saturday they will look to continue that good fortune when they play host to the Huskies of Connecticut (5-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) in NCAA college football action that is slated to get underway at 7 PM ET at Kenan Stadium (natural turf) in Chapel Hill, NC.

BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: NORTH CAROLINA -6.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* CONN has won its last five games SU

* CONN has covered one of its last five road games

* CONN has lost 11 of its last 16 road games SU

* CONN has played five of its last six road games UNDER the total

* NC has won four of its last five games SU

* NC has won four of the last six home games SU

Last week North Carolina walked into Dolphin Stadium in Miami with a little uncertainty, because T.J. Yates was sidelined with an injury (and will be for about six weeks), and the replacement, Mike Paulus, had thrown a couple of interceptions in very limited action the week before. But alas, Paulus gets yanked, Cameron Sexton, a veteran with more starting experience (five games' worth) stepped forward and led a Tar Heel comeback win.

We were in doubt about the "trigger man" for the North Carolina attack, because Yates had been running it so well, and with the strong-armed Sexton in the fold, those doubts are somewhat assuaged. We say "somewhat," because Sexton, in his previous starting stint, still completed less than 50% of his passes. We don't want to disparage the other working parts here, which include wideouts Brandon Tate and Hakeem Nicks, both of whom did a tremendous job for Butch Davis' young, developing UNC team this past weekend in the 28-24 victory.

The Heels are not far from being undefeated, but U-Conn certainly IS unblemished. True, there have been some close shaves, with three-point wins over Baylor and Temple, and a five-point victory over Louisville. The Huskies have played some pretty good defense, particularly against the pass, where they have snagged eight interceptions while giving up just four touchdown passes. With North Carolina struggling to put together a running attack, that's significant.

Connecticut has lost its starting quarterback as well. Tyler Lorenzen has a foot injury, and there is no telling when he will be back. Under Lorenzen's leadership, the U-Conn passing attack was more of the dink-and-dunk variety, but coach Randy Edsall can probably call a few more downfield plays with Zach Frazer in the lineup. Frazer, a redshirt sophomore, came over from Notre Dame, where he had no future with the Irish after the recruitment of Jimmy Clausen. Edsall says of Frazer, "He looked very, very confident, and that's something he can build on. He's got to be the guy we go forward with.”

The big factor that gives the Huskies a chance on the road here is the consistent play of running back Donald Brown, who leads the nation in rushing and is on pace to finish with over 2100 yards. Brown, who has averaged 6.2 yards a carry, is the real difference-maker here, as he gives his team something North Carolina doesn't really possess, which is a way to chew clock and keep their own defense off the field. We're grabbing points with U-Conn, the 6.5-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: CONNECTICUT +6.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay of http://www.ebookies.com gives it more than the old college try as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)