in NCAA F Betting Trends

Jan. 1st, 8 p.m. EST

Glendale, Arizona

 (-7.5)

For only the second time in history a team from a non-BCS conference will be making an appearance at a major BCS Bowl game. The Boise State Broncos (12-0) had a terrific season going undefeated and winning the WAC with the guidance of first-year Head Coach Chris Peterson. The Broncos prolific offense averaged 39.4 points and 424.2 points a game and they routed Oregon State 42-12 – the only BCS-conference opponent they faced all season. With an eighth-place finish in the BCS ranking the Broncos guaranteed themselves a date at a major bowl taking advantage of the rule that guarantees a non-BCS team an automatic spot if it finishes in the top twelve of the BCS rankings.

Under the leadership of Bob Stoops, the Oklahoma Sooners (11-2) have compiled an impressive 86-18 record in his eight-year tenure as head coach. The Fiesta Bowl marks the fifth BCS game for Oklahoma since Stoops reshaped a program that had struggled since the departure of Barry Switzer. The Sooners head into the Fiesta Bowl has clear favorites (-7.5) and are expected to dispose of their non-BCS opponents, but Scoops knows it won’t be an easy task: "It will not be hard for us to focus in on this (game). I look at people's track records. I look at what people have done over a great period of time, and Boise State has been excellent."

On the other hand, the Broncos arrive in Arizona with nothing to lose, with a huge boost for the program already secured. But the team is looking to prove they can compete at this level and this is major motivation against a quality opponent like the Sooners who are perennially a top-ranked program.

Boise State’s powerful offense is charged by one of the premiere running backs in the country. Ian Johnson ranked fourth among Division I-A running backs with 1,613 yards and led the nation with 24 touchdowns; and this despite missing one game with a partially collapsed lung due to cracked ribs. The Broncos success in this game will depend on their ability to run the ball effectively against a tough Oklahoma defense that only gives up 98.2 yards a game while limiting opposing backs to 3.3 yards a carry. Johnson has the ability to make plays but his offensive line needs to win some battles up front.

Sooners’ linebacker Rufus Alexander was named the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year and leads the team with 101 tackles and ranks 15th all-time among OU linebackers with 280 career tackles. Oklahoma enters the Fiesta Bowl after winning eight consecutive games with a defense that held five of its last seven opponents to ten points or less.

If Johnson can occupy the defense running the ball this should create play-action opportunities for Jared Zabransky. The quarterback completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 2,325 yards, 20 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. Zabransky is an accurate passer who can use his mobility to scramble out of the pocket and throw on the run. Three seniors form Zabransky’s top receiving threats: Legedu Naanee leads the Broncos with six touchdown receptions while Drisan James has 33 catches and Jerard Rabb has 33 receptions and three scores. The Sooners have had trouble summoning a consistent pass rush and Zabransky can be dangerous if he gets time.

When Oklahoma dismissed quarterback Rhett Bomar for receiving improper benefits, Paul Thompson was promoted to being the starter. He has done a splendid job completing 60.9% of his passes for 2,434 yards, 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He finished the season strong including a 265-yard, two-touchdown effort in the regular season finale against Nebraska. Sophomore Malcolm Kelly had a monster year with 62 catches and ten touchdowns grabs. Juaquin Iglesias and Manual Johnson fill out the receiving corps.

The real emotional boost for Oklahoma is the return of running back Adrian Peterson who was finally cleared to play after missing the team’s last seven games with a broken collarbone. How much Peterson can contribute and his impact remains to be seen but he is an extremely talented running back who will present a challenge for Boise State even if he isn’t at one hundred percent. Peterson’s teammates are convinced he will be a factor and are rejoicing in his return. When Peterson went down with his injury, Allen Patrick filled in admirably rushing for 700 yards on the year.

Boise State did a solid job defending the run where they limited opponents to 82 yards a game on the ground and allowed only five rushing touchdowns all year, but matching up against Oklahoma will be a much taller order. Linebacker Korey Hall was selected WAC defensive player of the year. He had 105 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 3.5 sacks and six interceptions. They’ll be counting on Hall having a big day corralling Peterson and the other Sooners’ running backs.

The Fiesta Bowl will a much closer game than many football fans anticipate. The Broncos will be eager to make a statement on the national stage against a formidable opponent and a confident Boise State team will take the field against the Sooners. As a participant from a non-BCS conference Boise State’s Coach Peterson knows what’s at stake: "We know we've got to go out and compete well and show well, or people will be saying, 'Yeah, they shouldn't have been there anyways.’ It's a great challenge.” But the Broncos seem like a good bet to rise to the occasion and keep this game within striking distance deep into the fourth quarter.

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Marc Reichertz is a freelance columnist and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker room and football.com.