BCS National Championship Contender - #3 Texas vs. Kansas

NCAAF: Texas Must Be Wary of Kansas This Saturday

Game-day: 11/21/2009

Kick-off: 8:00 pm EST

The Texas Longhorns can almost taste that trip to the BCS National Championship. Since struggling in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma (the Longhorns won that game by only 3 points), Texas has been dominant.

The Longhorns have gone 3 and 1 against the NCAAF wagering spread and have scored no less than 35 points in any one of those games. Quarterback Colt McCoy has thrown for 8 touchdowns and only 2 picks in those last four games and the Longhorns have outscored their opponents 164 to 38 in those last four games.

Oh, yes, the Longhorns also won three of those four games on the road. Now, that’s impressive!

By contrast, the Kansas Jayhawks have become somewhat of a laughingstock in the Big 12. At one time they were undefeated and ranked, now the Jayhawks have lost 5 games in a row. That wouldn’t be so bad if they hadn’t gone 0 and 5 ATS in those last 5 games as well.

Kansas is a betting pariah right now with a 2 and 7 record ATS overall. The Jayhawks are flummoxed. The usually high scoring team hasn’t put up more than 21 points in their last four games and have been held to less than 20 in 3 of their last 4 games.

The Jayhawks don’t really have a defense, they allowed Colorado to put up 34 on them and the anemic Kansas State Wildcats to put up 17, so not scoring is a death knell for them. If Kansas can’t get the ball into the end zone, they’re just not going to win games.

Below are the NCAAF betting lines for this game.

Kansas Jayhawks +27 ½ -110 O 55 -110

Texas Longhorns -27 ½ -110 U 55 -110

Here are a few online wagering trends for this game.

The Kansas Jayhawks are 0 and 7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

The Kansas Jayhawks are 1 and 6 against the spread in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.

The Texas Longhorns are 1-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 games at home.

In 2008, Texas beat Kansas 35 to 7. The score in this game could be much worse than that because Kansas is playing awful in 2009 after being decent in 2008.

Will Texas stomp all over the Jayhawks? Probably, but the Longhorns are only 4-5-1 ATS overall this year. Yes, they’ve been on fire lately, but everything that goes up must come down so to speak which is to say that the Longhorns are due for a bad game.

Better to get it out of the way against an overmatched Kansas Jayhawks’ team than in the Big 12 Championship or BCS Championship.