College Football Betting Week 12 - Wisconsin vs. Northwestern

College Football Betting

Wisconsin Badgers (8-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) at Northwestern Wildcats (7-4 SU, 4-6 ATS)
Saturday, November 21 - 3:30 PM ET

BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: WISCONSIN -7, Total 50.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• WISC has won eight of its last ten games SU
• WISC has covered four of its last 15 road games
• WISC has played four of its last five road games OVER the total
• NW has won five of its last seven games SU
• NW has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total
• NW is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games
• NW has won five of its last seven home games SU

Also....

• NW has covered seven of the last ten meetings
• NW has covered the last five meetings as the home team

Pat Fitzgerald has done a great job at the helm of the Northwestern Wildcats. The former NFL linebacker led the team to a bowl game last season, and will be making a post-season trip again, as they have chalked up seven wins, despite a 4-6 ATS record in the football betting odds. They could get one more here against Wisconsin, a team that has had problems when going out on the road, barely getting by Minnesota and Indiana while being decisively beaten at Columbus against Ohio State.

What's worrisome from the Northwestern point of view is that the Badgers, who have the 16th-ranked running game in the country, has been even better than usual the last three weeks, as they have averaged 263 yards. Although the 'Cats do a pretty decent job of limiting opponents to below four yards a carry, their big challenge will be to force Scott Tolzien (62.3%, 14 TD's) to the air, which is something they prefer to do in order to have a better chance in the football betting odds. .

We may actually afford an edge under center to Northwestern's Mike Kafka, the blood-and-guts warrior who is better than his stats (66%, 10 TD's) show. He's made a particularly potent combo with previously unheralded Zeke Markshausen (76 catches, 737 yards), and if he could get something more out of the running game he'd be much more dangerous. Maybe Arby Fields, who had 50 yards last week, can help.

The underdog has covered in the NCAA odds in eight of the nine games Northwestern has played. They showed us some guts, not just in the big comeback they had when they visited Indiana (down 28-3, they rallied for a 29-28) but also in the win over Iowa, followed by a win over Illinois, in what was a "letdown" situation. This team is clearly better than the sum of its parts, and we'll expect something tight. That means we "take" with the Wildcats, the seven-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: NORTHWESTERN +7 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)