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College Football Bowl Betting - Arkansas vs. East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl

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Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5, 7-4 ATS) vs. East Carolina Pirates (9-4 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Saturday, January 2: 5:30 p.m.

College Bowl Betting Odds: Arkansas -7 ½, Total Points 63 ½    

Here are some college football betting trends which may impact this game:


  • Arkansas: 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games
  • Arkansas: 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
  • Arkansas: The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 games
  • East Carolina: 5-2 ATS in their last 7 game
  • East Carolina: 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
  • East Carolina: The total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 games

One of college football’s most explosive pass attacks will be on display the day after the New Year, when Ryan Mallett and the Arkansas Razorbacks take on the East Carolina Pirates.
Mallett, a transfer from Michigan, has simply been a revelation in his first year in Fayetteville. On the year, he leads an offense that averages 37 points per game (No. 8 in college football) and averages 303 passing yards per game (No. 10). Personally, his 3425 ranked eighth in college football, and his 9.3 yards per completion was ranked second. In other words, Mallett was really, really good. Not to be outdone, Arkansas has several options at running back as well, including Broderick Green, Ronnie Wingo and Dennis Johnson.

Defensively  however, the Razorbacks struggled for most of 2009, and were unable to stop good offenses. They gave up over 25 points per game, which ranked 62 in college football, and their pass defense was particularly abysmal, ranking 104th out of 120 FBS teams. Against a good East Carolina squad, that will have to improve if they are to cover the betting odds.

Speaking of East Carolina, they come into this one having won four straight, including a shocking Conference USA Championship game win over Houston. The Pirates are led by sixth-year senior Patrick Pinkney at quarterback, who threw for 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year. It is important to note however, that during the Pirates four-game win streak, that number was six touchdowns and zero interceptions.

On defense, Skip Holtz is one of the underappreciated minds in all of the sport, as East Carolina had some good games against some really good teams. Take the game against Houston for example. The Cougars were the No. 1 scoring offense coming in, and although they scored 32 against East Carolina, it was almost two touchdowns less than Houston had been averaging.

In this one, it’d be easy to just take the team from the SEC and move on to the next game. But know this: There is a lot of controversy around the Arkansas program right now. It is believed that Mallett will enter the NFL Draft after this game, and he has recently been late to meetings and practices. Not quite the way that you should be getting ready for a bowl game.

Because of it, I think East Carolina covers this point spread. And besides, it’s not like they haven’t faced good passing teams before, they just beat Houston two weeks ago. And even though Arkansas is more dangerous running the ball, there is too much bad karma around them right now.

Take East Carolina to keep this one close, in the college football betting odds.

Aaron’s Pick: East Carolina +7 ½