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College Football Picks - #1 Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats

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NCAA College Football Sports Betting

Florida Gators (3-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Kentucky Wildcats (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Saturday, September 26 - 6 PM ET
BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: FLORIDA -22

Here are some of the NCAAF online betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

  • FLA has won its last 13 games SU
  • FLA has covered ten of its last eleven games
  • FLA has won its last seven road games SU
  • FLA has covered its last five road games
  • FLA has played six of its last nine road games OVER the total
  • KY has covered three of its last ten games
  • KY has played four of its last six games OVER the total
  • KY has covered two of its last six home games
  • KY has won 18 of its last 25 home games SU
  • KY has played five of its last six home games OVER the total

Also....

  • FLA has won the last 22 meetings SU
  • FLA is 5-21-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as the road team

Kentucky is about to go through a real rough stretch. First, they get to play Florida, a team they’ve lost to 22 straight times, Alabama, which it hasn't beaten since 1997, then South Carolina who are coached by Steve Spurrier, a man that is responsible for many of those 22 straight losses to Florida.

A lot of people thought the Wildcats would be greatly improved this year, but this will certainly be an acid test.

Quarterback Mike Hartline, who had nine touchdowns and eight interceptions a year ago, brought back almost all of his weapons. That includes Randall " Not Tex" Cobb, who saw action as a quarterback (52% completions, 5 INT's) and receiver last year, and has caught 13 passes from Hartline for 167 yards.

The Wildcats warmed up with a 42-0 win over Miami of Ohio, which really says nothing, then had life-and-death with a Louisville, a team it handled rather easily last year. They were outgained in that game, and maybe that tells you a little about their problem. UK was expecting to have five defensive starters back this season, but they lost All-SEC defensive Jeremy Jarmon when he was ruled ineligible for testing positive for a banned substance (landing with the Redskins in the supplemental draft). Sure, Trevard Lindley is one of the better shutdown cornerbacks in the country, but this is a front seven with a lot of new faces on it.

I guess a legitimate question involves how interested Florida will be. Last week they were thought to be operating on a fever pitch, ready to shove it down Tennessee's throat. They were sending text messages to Urban Meyer, telling him to save those timeouts, so they could really rub it in.

Well, the Gators were so busy thinking about what they were going to do when they got 28 points ahead that they NEVER got 28 points ahead, and may have actually been beaten if the Vols had any kind of quarterback play. Tim Tebow failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 31 games, and with just a ten-point win, you have to start believing Urban Meyer when he emphasizes that his Florida team just doesn't the explosiveness as receiver it had a year ago.

Will they have enough here? The defense will carry the team part of the way, certainly Hartline is a veteran, and certainly more capable than Jonathan Crompton from a week ago. We've got some confidence that the Wildcats can "ball control" the Gators as Tennessee did. And then, there's those receivers, as coach Meyer mentioned.

While we're talking about a team that has covered ten of its last eleven games, the Gators have also come up empty against the number the last seven times after playing Tennessee. There's a logical basis for that, since they expend so much energy for a hated opponent (and more than usual this last time). This time Kentucky wants a little payback for that 63-5 defeat a year ago, when Florida was doing its best to run up scores.

In a small recommendation, we'll look for Lindley to shut down one receiver, giving Rich Brooks the option of double-covering another Florida wideout and making Tebow make a lot of pays underneath to get the ball down the field. It's a ho-hum effort for Florida, which will win but not cover the 22-point spread in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: KENTUCKY +22 *

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)