Hawaii Bowl Betting Pick - SMU Mustangs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
by Dave D
Thursday, December 24th – Aloha Stadium (Honolulu, HI) - 8:10 PM E
: Nevada -12.5
SMU: The Week That Was
The Mustangs didn’t win the West Division of Conference USA on the final day of their regular season, but they had to be thrilled about their 26-21 win over Tulane.
The five-point victory over a truly awful opponent wasn’t an impressive display of football. SMU battled nerves the entire afternoon in Dallas, and trailed the Green Wave by a point (21-20) well into the fourth quarter. However, when running back Shawnbrey McNeal produced a four-yard touchdown run to give SMU the lead with 5:23 left in regulation, the Ponies overcame their inner demons. The defence protected the lead down the stretch, and when the clock hit triple-zero, the program destroyed by the NCAA “Death Penalty” in 1987 had finally earned another bowl bid.
Nevada: The Week That Was
The Wolf Pack had a chance to win the Western Athletic Conference title, but a team from Boise wouldn’t allow coach Chris Ault’s club to improve its hardware collection. Boise State knocked Nevada out of the WAC winner’s circle with a 44-33 decision on Friday, Nov. 27.
Nevada fell behind 27-3 after a quarter and a half, but the tireless Wolf Pack made the game legitimately competitive. A 71-yard touchdown run from tailback Vai Taua helped the visitors climb within one possession of a tie, at 34-26, with just over two minutes left in the third quarter. However, Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick couldn’t produce any scoring drives in the early stages of the fourth period, as Boise pulled away for an 11-point triumph.
The Week That Is:
The late-breaking news on this game – just days before kickoff – is that Vai Taua, Nevada’s foremost rushing threat, has been ruled academically ineligible for the Hawaii Bowl. That’s a significant loss. The question is, just how significant will it be?
Nevada might have lost a 1,000-yard rusher in the form of Taua, but the Wolf Pack boast two other players – quarterback Colin Kaepernick and running back Luke Lippincott – who have also topped 1,000 yards in 2009. Chris Ault’s pistol offense has generated video-game rushing numbers, as shown by this whopping statistic: Before being held to “only” 242 rushing yards by Boise State in the regular-season finale, the last time Nevada ran for under 300 yards was on Sept. 25 against Missouri.
Taua’s absence won’t change the winner of this game, but it will make an impact in terms of the point spread. This is an emotional game for SMU coach June Jones, who is returning to Hawaii after leading the home-state Warriors to the 2008 Sugar Bowl against Georgia. The Mustangs might not outscore Nevada, but they should be able to fight well enough to lose by only seven to 10 points.
College Bowl Predictions: Southern Methodist +12.5
