NCAA Football Odds Picks – North Carolina Facing Trouble vs LSU

The controversies swirling around the North Carolina football program have not yet drawn specific punishments, but they’re likely to be substantial in advance of Saturday’s game against LSU.  

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. LSU Tigers  
Saturday, September 4th – 8:10 PM ET 
Georgia Dome, Atlanta 
Broadcast: ABC 
Odds: LSU -3, North Carolina -3
Total: 40

There’s a mighty good reason why there’s no Vegas betting line on this game between North Carolina and LSU. The Tar Heels already got into hot water with one messy situation this past summer. The pervasive nationwide manhunt for wayward sports agents – one of the biggest topics of the summer in the college sports community – hit the Carolina campus hard. Defensive tackle Marvin Austin – one of the main NFL aspirants on the Heels’  loaded defense – was linked by NCAA investigators to agent Gary Wichard, who represents former UNC defensive tackle Kentwan Balmer, now with the San Francisco 49ers. It had come to the attention of NCAA investigators that Austin had been driving Balmer’s car. Moreover, Austin was suspected of being paid to take a trip to Miami for the purpose of carving out deals to smooth the path toward an NFL career. The long and short of it is that Austin’s doings raised red flags throughout the NCAA, and as a result, Austin’s season is shrouded in uncertainty.  

Then came NannyGate, the bombshell of a story in which Davis’s nanny was revealed to be a tutor who gave inappropriate help to several members of UNC’s defense, in a story reminiscent of other academic scandals at the Tennessee football program and the Minnesota basketball program (just to name a few prominent examples over the past 15 years). The jawdropping news – which hit the airwaves on Aug. 26 – plunged Davis into a bottomless pit of misery. 

NCAA Handicapping: What North Carolina Has To Do To Win 

It’s hard to have a game key – at least a well-developed one – when your team could have anywhere from six to 12 prime players suspended. At least seven members of North Carolina’s high-level defense – the unit that was expected to catapult this team into ACC Coastal Division contention – could be suspended for this game against Louisiana State. With wholesale losses like that, the lack of experience, quality and depth would be devastating for the Tar Heels and Mr. Davis, their now-beleaguered coach. With a minimal amount of key suspensions, Carolina can impose its defensive will against an LSU offense that has struggled markedly for each of the past two regular seasons. Without frontline starters on defense, LSU can pound the ball on the ground and wear down the Tar Heels. We’ll have to wait and see about the extent of suspensions… that’s what Vegas sportsbooks are doing, after all. With good reason. 

NCAA Handicapping: What LSU Has To Do To Win 

Because North Carolina is going to have at least six players suspended for this game, LSU has to take an NFL approach to Saturday’s neutral-site game in Atlanta. The Tigers simply need to avoid making big mistakes. They need to keep their offensive plan simple, and on defense, they need to avoid giving up the big play to the Tar Heels. As long as LSU does those things, the Tigers should be in good shape against an opponent that will certainly be shorthanded to some extent.