NCAA Football Week 13 Picks - #2 Alabama vs. Auburn

The oddsmakers are nervous about this one, pulling the line down across the board by -2.5 points. While Alabama is still a two score favorite, and undefeated this season, the Tigers are a rowdy team with nothing left to play for outside of a huge upset win over the Crimson Tide. As per usual, the Tigers’ high scoring offense is to blame for the reduced line and the reason people are scared of taking Alabama against a deadly spread offense that ranks 16th in the nation.

Auburn stands 5-2 SU when hosting Alabama, but are just 2-5 ATS in that same stretch. Their offense scores an insane amount of points with a 34.0 average, though their defense often lets them down by allowing 27.0 points per game. With a 6-1 SU record at home to defend, the Tigers would love nothing more than to ruin the perfect season currently held by Nick Saban.

Yet while many experts would be calculating if Auburn’s 93rd ranked rush defense at home (172.0 yards against), the difference here is a spread offense that has burned down scoreboards across the nation. You shouldn’t be too concerned about it though. Alabama’s pass defense is ranked fifth in the nation when away from home, allowing just 135.7 yards per game.

Friday, November 27th --- Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn --- 2:30pm EST

NCAAF Betting Line: Alabama -10 (46)

In fact, it’s Auburn’s rush defense that you should be worried about. Mark Ingram is the leading Heisman candidate with Toby Gerhart and Colt McCoy right on his tail. In order to separate himself from the pack, Ingram will need a massive game in this match and he just might get it. After just 11-carries last weekend, Ingram will be extremely well rested and prepared to preserve the perfect season of the Crimson Tide.

Greg McElroy, a Texas born quarterback, may not be all that familiar with the Alabama-Auburn rivalry, but he knows that his own stock will gain steam if he’s able to engineer a victory in this game. McElroy remembers all too well that 10-17 loss from the 2007 season, but maybe the 36-0 skunking from 2008 will give him the confidence to take pressure off Ingram to win this game.

Auburn is exciting, but they aren’t closers. They have losses to Georgia and LSU within the last month, and that’s not the kind of encouragement you need from the Tigers. Against ranked teams, they simply don’t match up well and there will be no exception to this college football sports betting trend when the Tigers host the second-best team in the nation.