Part of the college BCS Championship game odds involves propositions on the game, and it is quite obvious that the big stars are going to get most of the attention. LaMichael James is one of those workhorses, and how many tries will he get carrying the football? We will analyze this prop for you as best we can for Monday's title game, where Auburn is a 1.5-point favorite in the college BCS Championship game odds. James' over-under for total caries is 26 (Under -125, Over -105).
College - BCS Championship Game Odds:
LAMICHAEL JAMES -- TOTAL RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Over 26 Rushing Attempts -105
Under 26 Rushing Attempts -125
The Oregon running game is a little different than the one operated by Auburn, in the respect that while Auburn looks to its quarterback first and hopes that the running backs can fill in the blanks, Oregon has a go-to running back who carries much of the load and Darron Thomas, the quarterback, is someone who runs on a a secondary basis, with a rushing total that reflects it (492 yards). This prop in the college BCS Championship Game odds also reflects it.
James played in eleven of Oregon's twelve games this season, having sat out the first game with a suspension (I don't know; something about beating the hell out of his ex-girlfriend or something like that). With his 281 attempts, he has averaged 25.5 attempts per game. So naturally the situation presents itself where we have to determine whether he is going to get an above-average or below-average number of carries.
This is the way my logic works when analyzing the college BCS Championship Game odds before me: he went over this total six times this season, and it seemed like the less they needed him the more they used him. Against Tennessee in the second game of the season, for example, he ran it only 16 times, and that's because by the time the second quarter was about half over, the Oregon Ducks had started to score every which way and were on their way to a romp. The games with Arizona State, Stanford, USC and California were more competitive games, at least for a while, and Jame shad 28, 31, 36 and 29 carries, respectively, in those games. If we think that this game is going to be tight, which would seem logical, given the college BCS Championship Game odds on the game, it would follow that James would carry the ball more.
Of course, there is another side to that coin too, which is that Auburn knows all this and has been preparing for it, which in turn means that they gear themselves up to stop him first. That, in turn, might dictate that Oregon turns itself to other options, thus affording James less carries, even though they may be doing just fine in the game itself.
Do you see what I'm saying? Where do we go in the college BCS Championship Game odds when it comes to this prop?
Ultimately I see this as something that could go either way, but what pushes me to the "over" is the fact that Oregon runs a tremendous numbe rof plays, and more significantly, the price, which is -105.
JAY'S PLAY: OVER 26 (-105) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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