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Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bookmark and Share by Charles Jay

BetUS NFL betting odds: TAMPA BAY -1, Total 42.5

NOTABLE STAT: Green Bay is averaging 29.3 points per game

KEY NFL BETTING TREND: Packers have covered nine of their last 11 road games

It will be the battle of the "bays" on Sunday, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1 SU & ATS) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 1 PM ET.

In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Bucs are listed as a one-point favorite, with a posted total of 42.5 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* GB has covered 11 of its last 15 games

* GB has won 20 of its last 25 games SU

* GB has played six of its last seven games OVER the total

* GB has won and covered nine of its last 11 road games

* GB has played five of its last six road games OVER the total

* TB has covered two of its last six games

* TB has lost four of its last six games SU

* TB has played seven of its last nine games OVER the total

* TB has won and covered seven of its last ten home games

* TB has played four of its last six home games UNDER the total

Also...

* TB is 6-3-1 ATS in the last ten meetings

* GB has won 16 of the last 23 meetings SU

* Six of the last seven meetings have been played UNDER the total

* TB has covered four of the last six meetings as the home team

* TB has won five of the last six meetings SU as the home team

* Four of the last five meetings in Tampa have gone UNDER the total

In leading his club to an overtime win against the Chicago Bears last Sunday, Brian Griese threw for 407 yards and heaved the ball up a club-record 67 times. Some of this might have been great news for fantasy team owners, but when you look more closely, Griese didn't have such an outstanding game. He threw for only about six yards an attempt, completed less than 57% (in this day and age, not eye-popping) and turned the ball over four times (three INT's and a fumble). Green Bay has nine sacks (not bad) and they will try to put some pressure on Griese, forcing him into more miscues.

With someone like Ernest Graham (6 ypc) on hand, there is really no need for the Bucs to go almost exclusively through the air. And one wouldn't expect that to once again be the game plan, especially against this Packer defense, which in the early going has yielded 5.7 yards per rushing attempt. On the other side, Ryan Grant (4.2 ypc) is still bothered by a hamstring injury, and he has just not been the kind of impact player he was in the last half of the 2007 season.

You obviously have to give Aaron Rodgers an "A" for the way he has handled all the attention surrounding the Packers' transition to him from Brett Favre. Rodgers has kept his composure and looked very well-schooled, completing almost 65% for eight yards an attempt, and has put it up 99 times without an interception. No problem with anything there. Now, acknowledging that Rodgers is not a rookie, his is indeed inexperienced, and in his second road start, he faces a much more daunting challenge than in his first (at Detroit). One of the things Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin is very good at is throwing young opposition quarterbacks off their game, with his variety of coverages and blitz packages. Expect nothing different here than the kind of confusion Matt Ryan went through in Week 2 when he was just 13 of 33 with a pair of interceptions.

The matchups here favor the Bucs, and therefore this price is a bargain. Go with Tampa Bay, which has covered seven of its last nine laying points at home, and the one-point favorite in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: TAMPA BAY -1 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay of www.ebookies.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)