NFL Betting Previews – San Diego Chargers Are Too One Dimensional

What To Expect Out Of Rookie Ryan Matthews

It’s been a few months since the San Diego Chargers showed LaDanian Tomlinson, the franchise’s all-time leading rusher, the door. Unless you put some serious stock in rookie running back Ryan Mathews, the Chargers are poised to be a one dimensional passing offense. This team has more question marks than I would like to see out of a Super Bowl XLV contender.

Obviously, LDT isn’t the biggest loss to the 2010 San Diego Chargers. Vincent Jackson, their best receiver and one of the biggest mismatches for any cornerback, has been hit with a three-game suspension due to an illegal substance abuse.

Jackson had 1,167 receiving yards and scored 9 touchdowns in 2009, ranking him as one of the best receivers in the league. Without him, the Chargers will have to rely on Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates.

Still, the three game suspension of Jackson won’t necessarily kill the Chargers. They’ll face the Chiefs, Jaguars and Seahawks in their first three games meaning that the loss of Jackson doesn’t imperil this team like many think it’s going to.

Philip Rivers is easily one of the best passers in the game, and is coming off his best season in 2009. The Alabama native threw for 4,254 yards, 28 touchdowns, with just 15 turnovers (9 picks and 6 fumbles). He’s become one of the most reliable quarterbacks in the league, and his hyper competitive nature makes him a great leader for a team stocked with personality.

So the biggest question mark on the offense becomes running back. Darren Sproles is not an every-down back like fantasy pundits wish he was. Ryan Matthews may have been a stud at Fresno State but he also played in a terrible conference. The Bulldogs played just two ranked teams and while Matthews’ numbers were staggering last year, they’re hardly a reason to bet on the Chargers blindly.

Matthews is a 6-foot-0, 220 pound back who tallied 1,808 yards and 19 touchdowns for Fresno State in his junior year. He was drafted 12th overall in the 2010 NFL draft, and on paper he is probably in the best situation of any running back in the league but that is largely because he’s filling a void left by Tomlinson that Sproles isn’t big enough (literally) to fill.

Still, my worries about San Diego’s offense are largely based around Matthews. I’m always hesitant about running backs who emerge from the lesser known conferences. It may be a position that is prone to big time impact from a rookie, but the jump for Matthews from the WAC to the NFL is a tremendous one.

And it’s one that is worthy to note before lumping in loads on the Chargers to survive the steadily improving AFC West division or the other NFL Futures for the conference or even Super Bowl XLV.

I have zero qualms about the defense which continues to be a turnover savvy, sack hungry machine of death. Yet should Matthews fail to impress at the NFL level - and it’s a 50-50 toss up at this point - the Chargers sink back in to a one-dimensional team.

If you want to bet on the Chargers to win the division, conference or even the Super Bowl then be my guest.  Just remember that you’re not only betting on Rivers, the defense and a rookie running back.

You’re also betting on Norv Turner in the playoffs.