in NFL Articles
NFL Week 5 Preview - Your Best Betting Games
by Ian James
One of the keys to NFL betting is to get past the mainstream media’s sometimes-shallow narratives.
Brett Favre was stellar in the Vikings’ 30-23 win as 4.5-point chalk over the Packers in the Monday nighter. He was the best player on the field, but judging by the media’s reaction, Favre beat Green Bay all by himself.
Green Bay made the right decision by going with Rodgers instead of the now 40-year old Favre; it’s not Rodgers’ fault he was sacked eight times by Minnesota’s defensive line. Last we checked, Rodgers threw for 384 yards on Monday night, good for tops in the league in Week 4.
Favre is a great quarterback, but teams cover spreads.
Minnesota at St. Louis (+10, 41) – 1 PM ET
Favre and the Vikings (4-0, 3-1 ATS) look to keep rolling when they take on the lowly Rams (0-4, 1-3 ATS) on Sunday at the Edward Jones Dome.
Are 10 points enough for Minnesota to be giving St. Louis, even with the Rams playing at home? Public bettors certainly don’t think so: 80% of wagers on the line had come in on the Vikes through Thursday night. Don’t be surprised to see the spread on the move throughout the weekend because of the public’s behavior.
You can’t blame bettors after St. Louis was ripped 35-0 at San Francisco last week as 9-point underdogs. It doesn’t help that starting quarterback Marc Bulger (shoulder) is doubtful for the Rams. Backup Kyle Boller was awful last Sunday against the 49ers, and now he’ll face arguably the best defense in the NFC.
Dallas at Kansas City (+8, 42.5) – 1 PM ET
The Rams are a bad beat but they’re nothing compared to the Chiefs (0-4, 0-4 ATS), who are well on their way to finishing at the bottom of the NFL moneylist.
Kansas City hosts the Cowboys (2-2, 2-2 ATS) on Sunday, one week after falling 27-16 against the Giants (-9) in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicates. New York led 27-3 before Matt Cassel slipped in two touchdowns in the late stages to offer hurting Chiefs backers a glimmer of hope.
Dallas expects to have Roy Williams (ribs) in the lineup, and the Cowboys need to get him and Tony Romo going after they didn’t score in the second half in their 17-10 loss at Denver (+1) last week. After looking sharp in Dallas’ 34-21 win in Week 1 over Tampa Bay, Romo has only one TD to go along with four interceptions.
Atlanta at San Francisco (-2.5, 41) – 4:05 PM ET
Coming off their bye week, the Falcons (2-1, 2-1 ATS) travel to the Bay Area to clash with the profitable 49ers (3-1, 4-0 ATS) on Sunday at Candlestick Park.
Atlanta is bolstered by the return of running back Jerious Norwood (concussion) to the lineup this week. Norwood adds a ton of speed to the Falcons’ running game, which has struggled out of the gate this season after impressing bettors last year. Atlanta ranks only 23rd in rushing (92.3 yards per game) after racking up 152.7 YPG last season.
San Francisco won’t have Frank Gore (ankle) again this week, so it’ll be forced to rely on Glen Coffee against Atlanta. Coffee ran for 74 yards on 24 carries in Gore’s absence last week against the Rams, as the Niners continue to cash for bettors despite an offense that ranks 28th in the league at 264.0 yards per game.
New England at Denver (+3.5, 41) – 4:15 PM ET
The sizzling Broncos (4-0, 4-0 ATS) face their biggest test of the season when they clash with the Patriots (3-1, 2-2 ATS) at Invesco Field on Sunday.
This is also Josh McDaniels’ first game against his former team. McDaniels spent eight years under Bill Belichick, including three as offensive coordinator. Thing is, the Broncos defense doesn’t need much insight into Tom Brady, because they’ve fared incredibly well against him in the past.
New England (-3) rocked Denver 41-7 when the teams met in Foxboro last year, but Cassel was under center with McDaniels calling the plays for the Pats. Prior to that payday, New England had dropped three in a row to Denver both straight up and at the window.
