Super Bowl XLIV Betting Report – Peyton’s Loss Leads To Big Vegas Win

It’s a long told mantra that “the house always wins” and when it came to Super Bowl XLIV, that was certainly the case. Vegas cleared a profit of $6.9 million as the football betting public wagered $82.7 million on Sunday’s upset victory. Turns out that more people bought in to the hype surrounding Peyton Manning, then they did for the eventual and rightful team of destiny.

The Colts opened as 4-point favorites when Vegas opened the line the night of Championship Sunday, and that betting spread quickly ballooned up to 5.5. As I tracked and reported throughout that week, anytime a line moves up that fast, it means that the oddsmakers have usually missed the mark. The problem was that all the “experts” and “sharks” roaming the betting pools had bought in to the stock of Peyton Manning at its all-time high. Turns out that everyone was pretty much wrong.

The other reason Vegas was able to profit so heavily off of Super Bowl XLIV betting is because of the TOTAL, which was set at 56.5. I had said early on that it seemed like a ridiculous total, then I inexplicably went against the grain in my free pick. I feel like an idiot even in retrospect for ignoring the average 45.0 point total for the past ten Super Bowls and realizing too late that the TOTAL usually only slams the OVER if teams have defenses that can score like the Steelers, Ravens and Bucs all had when they won the big game.

Let’s not get too mad at the oddsmakers here. Their job isn’t to screw you over. Their job is simply to present you a handicap that encourages equal betting on both sides. What the 4.0 point represented was that the Colts should be favored, but that the oddsmakers were incredibly nervous about the Saints’ intangibles. Yet the swing on the spread told us that even the professional handicappers out there were banking on Peyton Manning.

The truth of the matter is that Indianapolis was not a bad bet at all. Neither was the OVER, quite frankly. I think when you look back on the 2010 Super Bowl, you’ll be shocked to remember that the Colts scored just 17-points in the game. Like the 2007 Patriots who were upset by the Giants, the Colts played a bit too conservative. You know all those masterful passes that Peyton completed this season? I can only remember one in the Super Bowl: the tear drop pass in quadruple coverage to Dallas Clark. Yes – quadruple coverage. It happened in the second quarter, and it should’ve been happening all game.

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And before you get mad at me for lobbing up a free pick on Indianapolis in the Super Bowl, let me remind you that I went 9-2 ATS in the NFL playoffs this year (10-2 if you include the Pro Bowl…ya I know it doesn’t count, I’m just padding numbers at this point). Like many of you, I got swept up in the Peyton Manning love fest.

Would I do it again? Knowing everything I did about that game, especially New Orleans’ porous play in the NFC title game, I would’ve sided with Indianapolis 9 times of 10. I’m serious about this. Peyton Manning was at the height of his game heading in to the Super Bowl, just like the 2007 Patriots, and forgot who he was and how he played. He didn’t take those chances he usually does, and the Saints caught him playing conservative which is perhaps the only reason that Tracy Porter nabs a pick-six in the Super Bowl.