in NFL Articles

And then there were two.

Super Bowl weekend is upon us. On Sunday, the Chicago Bears will get it on at Miami’s Dolphin Stadium in the 41st installment of this grand spectacle. The Colts were favored by 6.5 points at the time of publication, but that could easily move with the expected flood of public money coming in after the workweek is done.

The theme about the relative fortunes of the two defenses has been pounded over and over again. But we’ll bring it up one more time for good measure. Chicago finished the regular season with the No. 2 ranked defense in the NFL in terms of efficiency. The Bears were No. 1 for most of the year, but the season-ending injury to tackle Tommie Harris in Week 13 helped Baltimore seize the top spot down the stretch. Harris is a two-time Pro Bowler; he explodes into running lanes and is creative at defending the pass, which makes him an excellent fit in coach Lovie Smith’s Tampa-2 scheme. The Bears have given up 23.8 points per game since Harris went on injured reserve. Before? A measly 9.8 points per game.

Indianapolis, meanwhile, is heading in the other direction after posting the No. 27-ranked defense during the regular season. Safety Bob Sanders underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in September, missing a total of 12 games. In those games, the Colts allowed 22.9 points per game. When Sanders did play, which includes all three postseason games, Indy gave up 19 points per game. He’s also a Pro Bowler with blazing speed and a skill set that is well-suited to coach Tony Dungy’s version of the Tampa-2 – which Dungy and Smith both worked on together during their time with the Buccaneers. But don’t go overboard with the label – both teams have much more than the Tampa-2 in their toolkits.

The personnel changes on both clubs makes it difficult to determine which has the better defense – we’ll get a first-hand look on Sunday. As for the rest of the game, the Colts are far and away the superior team on offense (the best in the NFL, in fact), while Chicago counters with the most efficient special teams unit in the league. The combination of Bears returner Devin Hester and the horrible coverage the Colts provide may be Chicago’s saving grace this Sunday.

The betting public can generally be counted on to have very little clue about special teams beyond the obvious – in this case, the two field-goal kickers and the preternatural return talents of Hester. He was tied with four other Bears for the team lead with six touchdowns, and even if he doesn’t find the end zone against Indianapolis, he should have little problem getting Chicago into great field position on nearly every possession. That’s because the Colts had the No. 26-ranked special teams in the NFL. Don’t blame kicker Adam Vinatieri or punter Hunter Smith for that one; it’s Indy’s horrible downfield coverage that keeps the Colts from maximizing the talents of their offense.

And what prodigious talents they have. This is the one area of the Chicago-Indy matchup where sharps and squares alike can agree. Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterbacks ever to strap on a helmet. Rex Grossman is no slouch himself, but is only playing his first full season in the NFL after three years of injuries and frustration.

Both quarterbacks have the luxury of throwing to a pair of talented receivers and a dangerous tight end, and both get to hand the ball off to a skilled tailback duo. However, the overall talent level of the Colts offense eclipses anything Chicago can put on the field. This game could easily turn into an old-school Super Bowl blowout.

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