in NFL Articles

At Chicago Bears on Sunday February 4th for the ultimate prize… the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Here we examine some highlights of the many proposition bets with respect to rushing for the Indianapolis Colts. (Please note that the lines listed were at the time of writing, and may be subject to change)

At initial glance, this may be a prop bet that many football bettors may not want to touch because of Indianapolis’ penchant for passing the football when they get in the red zone. There has been only one game these playoffs where they had more than one rushing touchdown, with Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai reaching the endzone on the ground in the AFC Championship against the Patriots.

But check this out here… what should be looked at with this prop is the likelihood for Indy to have 1st and Goal situations, along with the fact that Manning will play-action boot down there. Including both regular season and playoff play, he has five touchdowns on the ground… to put that into perspective, the following running backs had four or less rushing touchdowns during the regular season: Ladell Betts, Warrick Dunn, Julius Jones and Tatum Bell. Believe it or not… even quarterback Michael Vick, who this season became the first quarterback to rush for over 1000 yards, had only two rushing touchdowns. Is the Over looking nice now?

The thing to remember in consideration of this prop is the fact that rushing the ball is not the strength of the Colts, so one would think that they would not do very well rushing the ball against teams that have good run defenses, and this has been evident with Indy in these playoffs. The Colts killed the Chiefs with 188 net rushing yards in the Wild Card because of KC’s porous run defense, and then the Colts run game got only 100 yards in Baltimore and 125 against New England.

Chicago is all about run defense, but in the same breath, they also know they have to stop Indy star quarterback Peyton Manning, so they will concentrate on the pass, which can open up run lanes. But let’s be real here… the Colts will not try to beat the Bears with rookie running back Joseph Addai… it’s all about Manning. So look to the Under.

In the regular season, Addai led the Colts with 1081 rushing yards, which was more than 400 more than Rhodes. Addai also had a 4.8 rushing average with a long carry of 41 yards; Rhodes’ average was only 3.4 with 17 yards being his longest carry during the regular stint. But oh my, oh my… has the post-season been a reversal or what?

In all three playoff games, it is Rhodes who has been the most explosive, as he has had a better average and the longest carry in each game… with all longest carries surpassing his regular season long of 17. Of course, the Bears are tough as nails against the run, but regardless of whether or not the Colts are leading the game entering the 3rd, Rhodes will get the ball, which should make the Over look as enticing as a diamond-platinum watch sitting by itself on a park bench.

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Anthony Oxley is a freelance columnist and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker room.