Will analyzing the Patriots games versus Colts, Saints help predict Super Bowl 2010

When making your Super Bowl predictions this Sunday, people have been scrambling for any type of serviceable metric they can get their hands on. One of the only teams that served as a viable test for both the Saints and Colts were the New England Patriots. So what information can we derive from their regular season matchups against Tom Brady?

The Colts and Patriots battled in what many refer to as the “Game of the Year”. This game, however, is more infamous for the call on fourth down by Belichik than anything else. What’s worth pointing out is that New England mangled the Colts for 364 passing yards and 3 touchdowns by Tom Brady. That’s major concern for the Colts’ Superbowl odds. The offensively focused Patriots were able to clear a tight betting line against the Colts and that may very well affect how you bet the Superbowl line.

The Saints, on the other hand, decimated the Patriots in the Superdome by a score of 38-17. The Patriots managed just 244 passing yards and Tom Brady registered two interceptions. It was sweet redemption for the ravaging the league took at the hands of the relentless 2007 New England Patriots scoring fiesta. Yet, while the Saints totaled 480 blistering yards, they did so in front of a home crowd while the Patriots gave up in the fourth quarter.

The most glaring fact from the Patriots-Saints game is that they played insanely well at home. When facing the Superbowl odds, and making a Superbowl prediction, the most obvious bet here is to take the team that gutted out a win over a team that won’t be playing in front of a feverish home crowd. If we learned anything from the two games the Superbowl contenders played against New England, it’s that the Colts should be your Superbowl prediction.

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