Going off of last year's stats to predict the best over teams in the NFL, isn't necessarily the only way to go. Case in point? The over in New York Jets' games was 12 and 4 last season. The reason for that is because NYJ, more often than not, played in games with low totals. That might not be the case this season because even though New York's defense will be awesome this season, they might end up faceing higher totals than they did last season because of the belief that QB Mark Sanchez will be better.
Below is what I feel are the best teams to score with overs this season in the NFL. Last year's over/under record is listed next to each team.
Top Teams to Bet the Over in the NFL
- Dallas Cowboys - 13-3 - The 'Boys allowed an average of 27.2 points per game last season. This season, in addition to playing against offensive powerhouses Philadelphia and the NY Giants twice, they also play against the Patriots, the Lions and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Those are three teams that could light up the scoreboard in 2011. Oh, yeah, getting back Romo will help the Dallas' offense put up points and the D is just as bad this season as it was last season.
- Houston Texans - 11-5 - The Texans scored close to 25 points per game last season while giving up close to 27 per game. The defense really hasn't changed that much and the offense will put up a ton of points. Over in most games appears like the call to me.
- New England Patriots - 13-3 - The Patriots averaged 32 points per game last season. With Ochocinco now catching passes from Tom Brady, that number could actually go up. Yes, Chad's had a bad NFL Preseason, but, let's be clear, coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady will get Ocho into the system very, very soon, and Ocho works his ass off. Wes Welker is still there and so is a man named Deion Branch who has amazing chemistry with Brady.
- Arizona Cardinals - 10-6 - Forget it. This season the Cardinals' defensive backfield is going to be atrocious. Seriously. The front seven, even with Joey Porter, won't be much better. How old is Porter? North of 40? Offensively, the Desert Birds should score more points with QB Kevin Kolb throwing to WR Larry Fitzgerald.
- Jacksonville Jaguars - 12-4 - The Jags' offense should at least score close to the 22.1 it averaged last season. Defensively, I'm just not impressed by the Jags' starting front seven. I'm not impressed at all, and the Jaguars' defensive backfield is just okay.
- Denver Broncos - 11-5 - The Broncos' D will be upgraded with John Fox as coach, but Denver figures to face a bunch of light totals with games against Tennessee and Cincinnati, the Jets, and Chicago. Offensively, adding Willis McGahee to the backfield, who I predict will be the full time starter within 4 to 5 weeks over Knowshon Moreno, should help open things up for QB Kyle Orton.
- Indianapolis Colts - 10-5-1 - The Colts' offense will be good no matter what. Yes…even if Kerry Collins has to play to start the season because of Peyton's injury. The defense will be awful, like always, and the Colts' play a bend but don't break scheme defensively.
- Kansas City Chiefs - 7-9 - The over didn't do as well as to be expected last season, but I'm in the minority in my belief that QB Matt Cassel is actually better this season than he was last season. I also love the development of RB Jamal Charles. Defensively, KC has some work to do and the AFC West is loaded with offensive studs (RB Darren McFadden in Oakland, the entire San Diego offense, and Denver's Brandon Lloyd at wide receiver).
- Detroit Lions - 10-5-1 - The Lions' offense could be special. QB Matthew Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson and RB Jahvid Best are all studs. It's just a question of keeping everybody healthy. The defense has a ways to go even with Ndamukong Suh terrorizing quarterbacks this season.
- Philadelphia Eagles - 10-6 - The question regarding Philly, in regards to the over, is whether or not the defense will give up enough points. Philly's offense should be spectacular this season, but if the defense is equally spectacular, then overs will be hard to come by. Then again, after the cornerbacks, how awesome will Philly's D really be? The front seven looked soft at times last year.