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Bet on Football - Week 4 Recap, MNF Preview and Trends

Bookmark and Share by Robby Maddux

Sunday's NFL betting action was amazing and was capped off with a fantastic game won by Da Bears as underdogs. The day started with a magical performance by Brett the Jet that will be long remembered. Favre threw a career-high and Jets-record six TDs in a 56-35 (2-2 SU and ATS) cover win over Arizona (2-2 SU and ATS). Favre, despite wearing the New York Titans throwback uniforms which were the ugliest throwback uni's ever worn in all of sports, finished 24-for-34 for 289 yards.

The Jets set a franchise record by scoring 34 points in the second quarter en route to an easy cover win as the 1-point puppies, shattering the total of 43.5 in the highest-scoring game this season. New York’s defense also did its part by forcing five turnovers—three fumbles and two interceptions.

Broadway Brett stole the show, but you have to give a shout out to Favre's counterpart Kurt Warner. The ageless wonder was simply out-gunned by the gunslinger himself, but Warner showcased a strong riffle of his own with 40-of-57 accuracy good for two TDs and a whopping season-best 472 yards. Arizona’s receiver Larry Fitzgerald caught eight of Warner's 40 completions in what was his 64th career game, making him the third fastest in NFL history to catch 350 passes.

One of the day's largest upsets was a 33-19 Kansas City (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) win as 9-point underdogs against Denver (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS). The 33 points was the most scored by the Chiefs since 2006. The win ended a 12-game losing streak which was the longest in the history of the Chiefs. During the skid, Kansas City dropped cash in eight of the twelve. Larry Johnson had a big day for a team that hadn't won since Oct. 21, 2007, running for 198 yards and two touchdowns while the Chiefs took advantage of four Denver turnovers.

Off to their best start in five years, oddsmakers expected the Broncos to ride into Arrowhead Stadium, buck the Chiefs and ride back to Denver with a bag stuffed with coins. Denver entered the game owners of an offense that averaged a league-best 38.0 points and was second in total offense (435.0 yards per game). Jay Cutler threw for 361 yards, but he also was intercepted twice, and the Broncos gave up two fumbles.

The Titans improved to 4-0 SU, covering the spread in every game along the way, for the first time in franchise history beating Minnesota (1-3 SU and ATS), 30-17. Not even dating back to their AFL start in Houston as the Oilers had they started a season by winning more than three straight. But in their 10th season as the relocated Titans, they have won an NFL-best seven straight regular-season games. Heading into Sunday's contest, the Titans were 3-point favorites and had not beaten Minnesota since 1992, losing their last four.

The Jungle is in shambles as Cincinnati fell to 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS) for the first time since 2002, when they went a franchise-worst 2-12 SU. As word spread Bengals QB Carson Palmer was going to rest his sore elbow versus the Browns (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) and miss a game for the first time since 2004, NFL online betting dollars came pouring in on Cleveland, who went from field goal underdogs to 1-point chalk at some books with the total dropping as many as 4 points at some places.

Cincinnati's backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, who hadn’t completed a pass in a regular-season game in three years, did his part in making the sports betting public look brilliant that invested in the Browns despite their dismal 0-3 SU start. Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions and finished the game as Cincinnati’s leading rusher with 41 yards on four scrambles, underscoring the Browns 20-12 money-making victory and the ''Bungles'' struggles in The Jungle.

But what else can you expect from a group of thugs scoring 13 ppg (NFL third-worse), that includes an overrated QB trying to get the ball in the hands of a receiver that's more interested in changing his name than focusing on playing football, and a club led by a coach who has no control over his team? There's a lot of heads needing rolled throughout the entire Cincinnati organization.

The largest upset of the day came during the late afternoon contests in Big D where Washington (3-1 SU and ATS) posted a 26-24 bankroll victory, as the biggest underdogs across the BetUS NFL odds board at +10.5, over the hated NFC East rival Cowboys (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS).

Washington won for only the second time in its last 13 visits to Texas Stadium but this trip knocked Dallas from the unbeatens. More importantly, the Redskins proved the two-game winning streak they brought in wasn’t just a fluke. They’re legit, and that means the NFC East is now a four-way race as one of the best divisions in the NFL. Note: Washington's defensive end Jason Taylor's consecutive games streak ended at 133 when he was inactive for the game at Dallas.

In the other two late afternoon games the favorites made oddsmakers look like geniuses. San Diego listed at -9 rallied from a 15-0 halftime score to defeat Oakland (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) and to hang on to a 28-18 cover win. LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 106 yards and two touchdowns helping the Chargers improve to 2-2 SU (2-1-1 ATS) after losing their first two games to start the season.

And, Buffalo listed at -9.5 also had to come from behind to cover the spread, as they battled back from a 14-6 halftime deficit with 25 unanswered second-half points en route to a 31-14 win over lowly St. Louis, who remains winless at 0-4 SU and has failed to cover the spread all season, which cost head coach Scott Linehan his job. On the flipside, for the first time in 16 years, the Buffalo Bills are 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS).

Sunday's night cap was served up with a lot of points in what was a great game between the 3-point favored Eagles (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) who flew into the Windy City to party with the Bears (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS). When the smoke cleared, the scoreboard read Chicago 24 Philadelphia 20. Bears' Alex Brown stopped Correll Buckhalter at the goal line late in the game, and Chicago hung on to wrap up a great day of football.

Week 4 NFL Football Betting Studs and Duds:

Brett Favre's career-high and Jets-record six TDs, finishing 24-of-34 for 289 yards was impressive. So was Kurt Warner's 40-of-57 for 472 yards with two TDs. And, Larry Johnson's 198 yards rushing with two TDs was stellar, too. And all three performances deserve stud status. However, the biggest stud of the week, by far, was Tampa Bay's placekicker Matt Bryant who had the guts to take the field with a heavy heart to play in honor of his 3-month-old son Matthew Tryson Bryant, who died in his crib on Wednesday. From the best seat in the house, high above Raymond James Stadium, Matthew watched dad kick three PATs and field goals of 23, 36 and the game-winner from 24 yards in a 31-20 Buccaneers victory.

This week's duds were wearing suits and ties known as J.B., Terry, Howie, Michael and Jimmy. The same FOX's NFL Sunday Pregame Show panel who all agreed Favre looked unenthusiastic about playing football and in particularly for the Jets. Prior to Favre throwing a career-high and Jets-record six TDs in a 56-35 win over Arizona. Wonder what sort of numbers he'd put up if he was enthusiastic and really wanted to still play? Notice how the hot weather chick Jillian Reynolds was left out of these knuckle-heads silliness, guys?

It was a fascinating and exciting Sunday of NFL wagering action, to say the least. But if you like smash mouth Monday Night Football, Sunday's action may be topped by the matchup between two of the NFL's most physical and best defensive teams, the Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers.

The early lead in the AFC North will be on the line when the Ravens’ top-ranked defense, allowing just 10 ppg, face the banged up Steelers, owners of the third-ranked defense that's surrendering only 12.7 ppg.

Ben Roethlisberger, already nursing a sore shoulder, was sacked eight times and left with an injury to his right hand in the fourth quarter of a 15-6 loss to Philadelphia last week will be under relentless defensive pressure of Ray Lewis and company. Baltimore has given up an average of just 161.5 yards through its first two games, 72.5 fewer than the league’s No. 2 unit, which belongs to Pittsburgh (234.0).

In the late 90's and early part of 2000, Pittsburgh owned Baltimore, winning 11-of-14 meetings SU. But the Ravens have won four of the last five meetings SU. The only Steelers win in the 5-game span came on Nov. 5 when Roethlisberger threw a career-high five TD passes last season on Nov. 5 in a 38-7 Steelers cover win on MNF, which was Pittsburgh’s 13th straight victory at home on MNF dating back to 1992. BetUS NFL odds favor the Steelers at -6 with a game total of 34½.

- Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

- Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh.

- Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings overall.

NFL Free Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers -6

Bye Week 5 Teams: Cleveland, Oakland, St. Louis, and NY Jets.