Early Super Bowl Odds - Colts are Favored

The BetUS sportsbook opened the betting line for Super Bowl XLIV at Indianapolis -5. Quickly, the line has gone to 5 ½ in favor of the Colts. Bettors are jumping onto the more impressive of the two victorious football teams from Sunday.

The Colts beat the New York Jets 30 to 17 this past Sunday as 7 ½ point favorites. Indy covered yet another spread this season, bringing them to 10-5-1 ATS going into the Super Bowl. They are also arguably playing their best football of the season after beating up on the Baltimore Ravens 20 to 3 as 6 ½ point favorites in their AFC Divisional Round matchup.

Contrasting that with the Saints’ game against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, a 3 point victory in overtime that didn’t cover the 4 NFL point spread, it becomes clear why New Orleans has become a larger underdog in this game. The Vikings committed 5 turnovers in the NFC Championship yet New Orleans couldn’t put Minnesota away in regulation. The Saints looked like they were on the verge of losing that game as the Vikings were on the edge of field goal range. A costly interception in the final 20 seconds of the game kept the Saints in it and the rest is history.

It makes sense, then, why sports gamblers are all over the Colts in this game. What doesn’t is why the odds makers decided to create a 5 point spread to begin with. New Orleans’ popularity may have something to do with it. The Saints’ have increased their fan base as well as any team in the league over the last few years. The whole country seemed to get behind the Saints after Hurricane Katrina ripped through the southern states and turned the Superdome into a giant shelter/hospital.

The Saints garnered a lot of attention as the NFL’s nomads during 2005 when they played games in San Antonio and it carried over to the next year. 2006 was also the year that the Saints signed QB Drew Brees and Coach Sean Payton. Odds makers obviously believe that the Saints’ popularity will lead to gamblers putting money on them.

The odds makers might still be right. How many of those sports gamblers who were reveling well into the night in the French Quarter will now turn their attention to betting on the home team Saints? Plenty is my guess but they might wait until the line goes up at least another ½ a point to 6 or 6 ½. A 6 to 6 ½ point line makes more sense considering how New Orleans fared in their victory over the Vikings.

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BetUS odds makers most likely hit the nail on the head when creating an opening total line of 55 ½. The total has increased to 56. Sports gamblers can’t glean too much from the total movement. The line may drift up to 57 or 57 ½, but after that it most likely will fall close to the initial 55.

There is plenty of time for gamblers to bet the Super Bowl. How the line changes is going to be interesting moving into this weekend and beyond. Was the initial line movement from 5 to 5 ½ an overreaction to the Colts terrific victory over the Jets and the Saints’ squeaker over the Vikings? Was it a legitimate reaction to a bad line created by the odds makers? Will Saints’ bettors show their gold and black colors and jump onto their team thereby causing a line shift the other way?