in NFL Betting Trends

      In the interests of preserving some objectivity and standing with Eagles Nation, I have agreed to take on what many in my business would look at as the unenviable task of explaining how the Philadelphia Eagles can win Super Bowl XXXIX.
 
      Note that I said how the Eagles can win the game and not how they will win it. I am already on record as predicting a Pats win and still expect one. And, since even sportswriters have ethics, I can't pick both teams then crow afterward that I had the winner.

      Having said that, it's not all that hard to see an Eagles' victory. I don't think the Patriots are the lock most self-appointed "experts" think they are.  For one thing, I've betting sports way too lock to believe that there is any such thing as a "mortal lock" unless it has the name Master on it and can take a bullet.
     
       New England is, indeed, a very, very good, maybe great football team, one of the best we're ever likely to see. But Philly's a pretty darned good team, too, and the Eagles happen to have the tools it takes to win.

      The talk all week has been about the quarterbacks and Terrell Owens, but that's not the key to the game.
     
      If the Eagles win, it will be because of the defense, specifically middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter and defensive end Jevon Kearse. No players are more critical to the Eagles chances of success than these two.

      What people often overlook in analyzing the Patriots is that they also have a very productive offense to go with that great defense. If the defense has an off day, the offense will adjust and outscore you.
     
      They did it last year in the Super Bowl, when both the Panthers and the Patriots forgot how to play defense in the fourth quarter. The Panthers made the mistake, as the Rams did two years earlier, of giving the Patriots the ball with enough time on the clock to get into Adam Vinatieri's range for the field goals that won both Super Bowls.

       But a field goal DOES NOT cover a 6' point spread!
 
      So as much as the Eagles offense will be challenged, it will be the defense that has to win the game. The formula's out there, too.

      In the Pats' losses to the Dolphins and Steelers, the opposing defense forced turnovers that decided it. The Steelers did it by utterly denying the run. The Dolphins forced Brady into a hideously ill-conceived pass late in the game that made the difference.

      Pittsburgh's job in stopping the ground game was easier than the one the Eagles face; New England played the Steelers the first time without their star running back, Corey Dillon, who is healthy now and a punishing force. But he's the man the Eagles have to stop first.

      That's where Trotter comes in.
     
      Supposedly and statistically, Philly is soft against the run, but that reputation was earned in the first half of the season, before Trotter was installed as a starter in the middle. In the second half of the season, the Eagles were much harder to run against (damn near a yard per carry tougher) and Trotter was the reason.

      He's a man on a mission, a player who left the Eagles in a contract dispute, went to the wasteland that is Washington, then came back. But this time it was a team that no longer had a starting position for him. He took it as a challenge, and once he cracked the line-up, he's been one of the most valuable and inspirational players on the team.

      He feels divinely chosen to win this year, and while it's more likely than not that the Almighty doesn't take sides in football games, that belief is important of it's own self.  And, Lt. Gen. Jerry Boykin, among several other prominent wing nuts has said that's why Bush is in the White House.  As has Karen Hughes and you gotta believe deep in his tiny, born-again-heart George thinks so too. 
     
      So, why not a new kind jeremiad? If it has given Trotter energy and resolve, more power to him.
     
      Personally, I believe that Providence will have about the same direct impact as that gawdawful (Have you ever tasted it?) Campbell's soup that mama McNabb is endlessly peddling.
      In any event if Trotter succeeds and leads a charge that stops Dillon, the Patriots will be forced to the air. Normally, that's not a good thing for teams trying to beat New England. Quarterback Tom Brady is as tough and as cool under fire as anyone since Joe Montana. He's also accurate 60% of the time and has become a master at picking apart defenses.

      But he's not Superman. Put enough pressure on any quarterback and he'll start making decisions he'll wish he could have back. It happened to Brady against Pittsburgh and Miami. It can happen again.

      That's where Kearse - the Freak - comes in. He has to be on Brady like ED commercials will be on the game. The Eagles have three Pro Bowlers in the defensive backfield, probably the game's best secondary. Get Kearse after Brady and the corners and safeties might pick off a couple of passes, and a couple is all it takes.

      None of this is wildly out of the realm of possibility. It is, in fact, easy to see it happening, particularly with Philly's defensive guru, Jim Johnson, having had two weeks to come up with inventive ways to make Brady look human.

      Everyone talks about Brady's 8-0 playoff record, but Johnson and Philly's head coach, Andy Reid, have a record of their own: 8-0 when they have two weeks to prepare for an opponent.

      The Eagles have had their two weeks. They have a great defensive coordinator and two great impact players, one who can stop the run and one who can hound a quarterback to distraction.

      If Trotter and Kearse do their jobs, the rest could well fall into place. The offense won't have to score 35 points. It may, if the defense produces a score, need only 10 or 14. McNabb and company will certainly produce that many points, no matter how well New England's defense plays.

      Finally, the Eagles aren't going to roll over. They're as tough as the Patriots, and, after three straight years of losing in the NFC Conference Championships, they're as hungry as any team can be for the season's last victory. They'll play ferociously and they'll play smart.

      And if Trotter and Kearse do their thing, the Eagles can bring the championship home.