Patriots, Cassel, Look To Stay Perfect Against Rebuilding Dolphins

The New York Jets 19-10 on the road.

The Arizona Cardinals 31-10 on the road on Sunday.

Now, the Patriots will look to beat one of the division rivals while Miami seeks its first win of the regular season.

Cassel went 16-of-23 for 165 yards with no picks or touchdown passes in a revised offense that featured safer, shorter pass plays and 33 combined carries and 104 rushing yards from their running back-by-committee.

"At the end of the day, you've got to have more points than the other team and that's what we did, so I'm satisfied," Cassel said. "I didn't have too many butterflies going out. I've been in the system for four years, so I'm confident I know I can run it."

The Dolphins, who are trying to bounce back from a franchise-worst 1-15 mark in 2007, struggled on offense in a big way last week, gaining just 236 total yards while allowing 445 defensively.

"You're always going to hit some adversity," Sparano said, "and we've hit some adversity right now."

Veteran starter Chad Pennington, signed in the offseason to lead the young Dolphins, was benched in just his second start with the Dolphins after going 10-of-20 for 112 yards, but rookie backup Chad Henne did manage to go 6-for-7 while leading the Fins to their only touchdown.

Miami has also struggled to run the ball immensely, with veteran running back Ricky Williams picking up just 52 rushing yards on 21 carries in two games and Ronnie Brown rushing for 48 yards on 17 carries.

Miami is averaging just 12.0 points per game while allowing 25.5. The Patriots are averaging 18.0points per game while limiting their opponents to just 10.0 points per contest.

Here is a look at the key trends for each team, followed by my analysis and NFL Free Picks:

Miami is 5-11-2 ATS in its last 18 games

Miami is 1-20 SU in its last 21 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games

Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road

New England is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games

New England is 20-1 SU in its last 21 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games

New England is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

New England is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home

NFL Odds

Miami Dolphins +12½ -110

New England Patriots -12½ -110

Over 34½ -110

Under 34½ -110

Analysis: I bet most people don’t know that Bill Belichick is just 9-7 against the Dolphins since taking over in New England, bit it’s the truth. While certainly don’t like the Dolphins to win this game, something tells me that Miami is going to cover the spread in this contest. However, I am also going to encourage NFL bettors that the ‘Over’ is the best play in this matchup.

NFL Free Picks: Patriots 27 Dolphins 17