Super Bowl 2010 Betting Lines - Early Money is on the Colts

In the wake of both Indianapolis and New Orleans earning conference championships and Super Bowl berths, the pro football betting community is anxious to get a fix on the line they’ll be playing in two weeks when the NFL lands in Miami for Super Bowl weekend.

Las Vegas was quick to open up a Super Bowl XLIV betting line of -4.0 for the AFC Champion Colts, with a massive TOTAL of 56. Yet almost instantly the betting line moved up giving the Colts an even bigger spread to cover. With the top seeds from either conference competing for the Lombardi Trophy for the first time since 1993, this game is going to be a touch call. What are the oddsmakers across the globe trying to say?

Analyzing The Spread

Any time a spread instantly moves by 1.5 points, it’s a big heads up. That’s usually the most that any betting spread will move when both teams are at full strength. What Vegas was hoping was that the Saints’ victory would bolster their rank as the best offense in the league, but the sharks and experts took advantage of that line because of their faith in Peyton Manning and the spread busting Colts.

Of course, the public has yet to weigh in on the line. The problem with measuring any movement now is that there are plenty of Colts fans out there to keep the spread at -5.5 in favor of Indy, and a surge by an undecided faction of the public that may appreciate the Saints’ momentum likely won’t be enough to pull this spread below -5.0 points. Vegas underestimated the betting IQ of both the experts and the public in this one. The last time a line moved so quickly was when the Patriots-Giants Super Bowl tilt opened at -14 and moved immediately down to -12 in 2008.

Analyzing The Money Lines

Since they opened, the ML has moved all over the mpa. The Saints stand currently as slim +170 underdogs, moving down from the opening +185. Any hard movement on the Colts would’ve slammed this to the +200 ceiling, but oddsmakers are going to be wary of making the Saints any more enticing of a Super Bowl XLIV bet than they already are.

The money line on the Colts, however, could become even greater. At -210 locked in to a parlay with a TOTAL, betting enthusiasts can bank a huge payout. If the public decides to move heavy on the Colts moneyline, it’ll move towards the -300 mark making it largely unattractive compared to the spread. The bookmakers are going to keep both sides enticing but a massive movement by the public could stretch the odds against the Colts making the payout even smaller.

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You have to always remember that the oddsmakers are constantly trying to encourage even betting on both sides of the line, but moneylines are different. They’re more of a true reflection of where the oddsmakers think the favorite is. The fact that the Colts have moved up ten-percent to -210 from -200 already suggests that the sharks and experts are leaning on the Colts to win straight up.

Analyzing The TOTAL

As far as totals go, this is the second highest of the entire playoffs and was the only element of the betting lines that didn’t move at all. Until now. Granted when this opened, I thought it was staggeringly high considering the Saints would have to play on the road, but the line has moved a half-point to 56.5 from where it opened. Apparently the TOTAL wasn’t high enough.