Super Bowl 44 - Breaking Down the Most Important Betting Trends
Keeping an eye on some crucial trends can be one of the most effective ways for sports gamblers to make profits come Super Bowl 44. Teams play and react to certain scenarios with shocking consistency, so when you know what to look for, it can help give you the edge you need when it comes to profitable Super Bowl betting.
Using those trends to craft a solid argument for a particular wager, though, can be a challenge. That’s the reason I will be analyzing the two most significant trends regarding both the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts in this article.
Which team should gamblers wager on in Super Bowl XLIV? A trend analysis will help them make that decision.
Four Significant Trends for Super Bowl XLIV
New Orleans Saints Trends
The New Orleans Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass - - This trend is very misleading because the New Orleans Saints simply didn’t play a lot of games on grass during the regular season. One of the games they did play on grass was against the Miami Dolphins in Miami, the site of Super Bowl XLIV. Not only was the Miami game a cover ATS, but it was also a game where the Saints showed that they were good enough to come back from a deficit. The Saints were down 24 to 3 before rallying in the second half to win 46 to 34.
This is big because many turf teams seem to struggle on the surface change. The Saints have won a significant, and hard fought, game on Miami’s grass at the Sun Life Stadium, a site they’ll no doubt have to dig deep again to come out victorious. If you’re leaning towards New Orleans, take comfort in the fact they are able to run their high powered offense on a natural field.
The Saints are 6 and 1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game - - This trend is misleading and one that you’ll want to disregard when making a bet. When you dig deeper, you’ll see that their ATS record after getting torched the week before is not because D steps it up the next game.
The Saints gave up 439 yards to the Dallas Cowboys in their first loss of the season. A week later against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Saints gave up 439 yards again. A week after that the Saints gave up 327 yards, which looks like an improvement initially, but in reality of the 327 yards the Saints gave up, 178 came on the ground and the Saints lost the game.
A trend that IS important, is that New Orleans has covered after both of their bye weeks this season. The important thing to note is that the Saints defense dominated two very good offensive teams after those bye weeks. The Saints obliterated the then undefeated New York Giants 48 to 27 as 3 ½ point favorites after their regular season bye. They then thrashed the Arizona Cardinals 45 to 14 as 7 point favorites after skipping the NFC Wildcard Round.
That’s something to remember about the New Orleans Saints but what about the Indianapolis Colts?
Indianapolis Colts Trends
** There are a lot of positive trends regarding the Colts going into this game.
The Indianapolis Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games on grass - -
Guess what gamblers? Indianapolis is great on everything! It doesn’t matter if the super bowl 44 spread. The Colts have gone 10-5-1 ATS so far this season. With one game to play, Indy is assured of a winning ATS record for this season. They’re just a good team that odds makers and gamblers have been leery about betting all season long. What this means is that the fact the Saints and Colts are both good on grass, so neither teams gains a betting advantage because of the surface.
The Colts cover spreads. But do they cover spreads when they are big favorites? Maybe. Analyzing the trend below will certainly help us answer that question.
The Colts are 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorites of between 3 ½ to 10 points - - This is another great looking trend but it’s another trend that gamblers need to take a closer look at. The thing that jumps out to me is how many numbers are between 3 ½ to 10. There’s a 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 between 3 ½ to 10. That’s 6 numbers. To me, 6 numbers are just too many to make this trend significant.
What’s a more significant trend is the fact that the Colts are 6 and 3 ATS out of 9 games where they were favored by 5 ½, the betting line in the Super Bowl, to 14 points. That’s a much more significant trend than 5 and 0 ATS between 3 ½ to 10 points.
The trend to remember about the Saints is that they are exceptional after a bye week. The trend to remember about the Colts is that they are terrific ATS when they are big favorites.
I put more weight in the fact that the Saints are able to regroup and develop a solid game plan specific to the team they are facing. That speaks volumes about the coaching staff. Having a solid game plan is the most crucial part to any game and I think the Saints will come in the better prepared team.
My Super Bowl 44 pick according to the trend analysis will be on the New Orleans Saints at +5 ½.
