2018 AFC Wild Card Betting Picks

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs - Saturday, January 6th, 2018 @ 16:30 EST.
Kansas City was one of the NFL's most bizarre teams this season. They started out the season red-hot by smashing the reigning champs, slumped in the middle losing six of seven, and rebounded in December to win their last four games. The Chiefs are gelling at the right time. Meanwhile, despite winning just one of their final four games, the Tennessee Titans squeaked into the playoffs on the back of a very weak AFC. I truly have faith in neither squad and am absolutely sure they will get annihilated the following week. In these cases, I'm riding with the home team in what should be an insane environment. Buy this one down and take the Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5).

Could we be witnessing Alex Smith's final game at Arrowhead in a Chiefs uniform? All indications point that way. Smith has been one of the NFL's most reliable regular season passers who just can't get it done in the playoffs. A poor man's Andy Dalton if you will. If Smith can simply manage the game, get the ball to Tyreek Hill and let his defense do the rest, Kansas City will win this game.

Tennessee is going to have to get it done on the ground if they want any chance in this one. The game plan will feature a healthy dose of RB Derrick Henry and some designed runs for QB Marcus Mariota. Mariota is an unproven entity in the playoffs, but he will have to have the game of his career if they are to have any hope. Unfortunately, I just can't see him getting it done in one of the NFL's most hostile environments.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday, January 7th, 2018 @ 13:00 EST.
Before Week 17, the Bills had a 14.8% chance of making the playoffs. And they made it! Celebrate, Buffalo, because given this weather, you deserve a playoff game in the Florida sunshine. Their victory in Miami had to be bitter-sweet though as their work-house Shady McCoy went down late in the game. There will be conjecture all week about whether McCoy will play and, even if he does, whether he'll be able to shoulder his usual work load. I would love to pick an upset in this one, but given McCoy's unknown condition, I'm going to have to ride with the Jacksonville Jaguars ML.

Jacksonville (or, sorry, #sacksonville) has been all about the defense all year. They led the league in passing yards allowed and trailed only Minnesota in points allowed. This is a hungry, young defense that has the sheer, raw talent to win football games. But how will they handle the pressure of the biggest game of their young careers. I'm guessing the offense is going to look have issues on both sides and that's why I'm actually far more confident in this game going well Under.

To be honest, neither squad had looked great in December. Jacksonville lost their final two games and Buffalo looks like they've lost their best player. The Bills haven't been to playoffs since 1999 and haven't won a playoff game since 1995. I'd love to pick them, even as a Dolphins fan. I just can't pull the trigger.