College Football Line – Arkansas Hopes to Scare Auburn
by Charles Jay
Those playing the college football line on Saturday may take a glance at the Sun Belt, where Arkansas State, which threw a scare into a very good Iowa team last year, will take the field as a big underdog against the Auburn Tigers in the opener for both teams. The game, which will be played at Jordan-Hare Stadium (natural turf) in Auburn, AL, starts at 7 PM ET. The college football line for this contest has the Tigers favored by a whopping 31.5 points, with the total posted at 57.5 points. Auburn brings aboard a new quarterback, Cameron Newton, who many observers are excited about.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Auburn Tigers
Live at Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Saturday, September 4 -- 7 PM ET
TV: Fox Sports Net South
College Football Betting Line:
Auburn -31.5
Arkansas State +31.5
Total 57.5
There was a lot of turmoil in the Auburn program in the last year of Tommy Tuberville's reign, and the hiring, then firing, of offensive coordinator Tony Franklin (now at Louisiana Tech) was just a part of it. Last year, in the first season under Gene Chizik, the Tigers were 8-5 SU and 6-6 against the college football line, and that came after a 2-9 ATS record the year before. Chris Todd, the guy Franklin was trying to get to perform for him, threw 22 TD passes and only six interceptions, but now he's departed. The new quarterback is Cameron Newton, a 6'6", 250-pounder who started his career at Florida, then went to junior college for a year, and though raw, has potential. Ben Tate is gone from the running game, which means this team will have to make do with Mario Fannin and Ontario McCalebb, who had 148 yards rushing in last year's opener against Louisiana Tech. Big-play receiver Terrell Zachery (18.3 yards per catch) has to be respected. On the college football line, Auburn is priced at +500 to win the SEC West, which includes Alabama.
Here are some of the trends as they impact our football betting prediction on this game:
- Arkansas State has lost eight of its last 11 games SU
- Arkansas State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games
- Arkansas State has played six of its last eight games UNDER the total
- Arkansas State is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games
- Arkansas State has played four of its last five road games UNDER the total
- Arkansas State has lost seven of its last eight road games SU
- Auburn has won seven of its last nine home games SU
Steve Roberts is in his ninth year as coach at Arkansas State, and he has a squad that regularly plays below expectations. The Red Wolves (do we really have to say that?) have dropped their last six decisions to the college football line, and have covered just three games in the last 19. This does not inspire us. BUT, some of those covers have been genuine surprises. Last year ASU played Iowa right down to the end before losing a 24-21 verdict, and scored a win over Texas A&M in 2008. Ryan Aplin, who missed spring practice with an injury but completed 65% last year, won the QB job over redshirt freshman Phillip Butterfield in fall practice, and there is a new no-huddle offense in place.
Yes, there are some things going against Arkansas State here - their lousy pointspread record, their lack of size on defense, and the fact that this is their only game on grass are not in their favor. But Auburn has a short week before starting its conference schedule against Mississippi State, and we are not sure this defense is vastly improved, or that Newton is refined enough as a passer yet. It’s a lot of points, and we'll take them with ASU, getting 31.5 on the college football line, in our football betting prediction for Saturday.
JAY'S PLAY: ARKANSAS STATE +31.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
Think you can triumph over the college football line? Then place your bets now for Week 1 at BetUS Sportsbook!
