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Heading into Week 12 many teams are already feeling the heat, facing must-win scenarios in order to keep their postseason hopes alive. The Rams showed real promise early in the season; even their defense looked much improved when they beat Denver way back in Week 1. In recent weeks it’s been a struggle and if they can’t win at home against the ‘Niners the future looks dim. Same for the Falcons and Saints in the stormy NFC South: both teams are trying to turn things around while the Carolina Panthers are typically hitting their stride in the second half of the season. Whichever team loses this Sunday faces a rocky road ahead. Last week we finished a healthy 3-4, so there’s plenty of reason to keep the dream alive. 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +5 vs. ST. LOUIS RAMS -5

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the biggest surprises of the year – with a 5-5 record they have already exceeded their win total from last season and they are only one game behind the Seahawks who lead the NFC West. The ‘Niners have won three straight for the first time since 2002 as they prepare to visit St. Louis for a key divisional game. Running back Frank Gore has been on a tear averaging 137.3 yards during their winning streak including a monster 212-yard performance last week. Quarterback Alex Smith is completing 62% of his passes in Norv Turner’s offense and isn’t turning the ball over. This is a must-win game for the Rams who are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive while suffering a five-game losing skid after a promising 4-1 start to the season. Despite the losses, Mark Bulger is having a terrific year with 2,657 passing yards, thirteen touchdowns and three picks, but the loss of tackle Orlando Pace hurts: last week Bulger was sacked seven times by the Panthers. The Rams have given up at least 160 yards rushing to their last three opponents.

PREDICTION: 49ers to cover

CHICAGO BEARS +3.5 vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3.5

This clash between two of the league’s top defenses is a game that should not be missed by any sane football fan. The 9-1 Bears come into New England having won two straight games at the Meadowlands against the Giants and Jets. Their defense continues to set the tone while quarterback Rex Grossman and the offense is averaging 28.2 points a game. The Patriots do a great job stopping the run, so the game may rest on the arm of Grossman who went 11-22 for 119 yards and a touchdown against an aggressive Jets defense last week. Receiver Mark Bradley has emerged as a dangerous target and Muhsin Muhammad has elevated his game. Bill Belichick will devise a game plan to pressure and confuse Grossman with some creative schemes and blitz packages.

The Patriots have six players with three or more sacks and ten with at least a partial sack so the pressure can come from anywhere. Tom Brady threw four touchdowns last week against Green Bay’s struggling secondary but the Bears defense will be much harder to crack. The Bears have been vulnerable against the run, but with Corey Dillon hurting, the Patriots will rely on a heavy dose of Laurence Maroney to help loosen up the Bears defense, so Brady can take some shots downfield. The Patriots have more at stake in what should be a tight game.

PREDICTION: Patriots to cover

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +3 vs. ATLANTA FALCONS -3

Adding to the turmoil this week in Atlanta, in the midst of a three-game losing streak, were Jim Mora’s Sr.’s comments that Michael Vick is a “coach killer”. Unquestionably, Vick has struggled in the team’s three losses completing less than 50% of his passes with four interceptions and only three touchdowns, but the rest of the team has been in a funk as well. Warrick Dunn has not rushed for 100 yards since Week 6 against the Giants and the defense has been dogged by a series of injuries including the loss of Patrick Kerney. A positive note is the possible return of defensive end John Abraham this Sunday. New Orleans has lost three of four games and is clinging to a one game lead in the division. Drew Brees has been outstanding leading the league with 3,114 passing yards including 510 last week in a losing cause. The Saints problem is the defense that is in a slump having given up over 30 points in each of their recent losses. Rookie standout Marques Colston is questionable with a high ankle sprain but Brees can be effective spreading the ball around to Joe Horn, Devery Henderson and Terrance Copper. This game could turn into a high scoring affair. I have a gut feeling Michael Vick takes Mora’s words as motivation and the team rallies around their quarterback.

PREDICTION: Falcons to cover

HOUSTON TEXANS +4.5 vs. YORK YORK JETS -4.5

Over the last six games, Jets quarterback Chad Pennington has been struggling having failed to throw for 200 yards in any game with four touchdowns and nine interceptions. The good news for the Jets is that they still managed to win three of those games and are 5-5 and still ahead of the surging Miami Dolphins. Coach Eric Mangini is backing his starting quarterback, but you get the feeling Pennington needs to make a statement this Sunday, while the Jets need a win to stay in the hunt for the postseason.

The Texans lost a heartbreaker to the Bills last week in the dying seconds and their pass defense is giving up far too many big plays. After a hot start, Houston quarterback David Carr has failed to throw a touchdown in four consecutive games, but the Texans’ running game came alive last week when the tandem of Samkon Gado and Wali Lundy combined for 130 yards against the Bills. The Jets have allowed 125 rushing yards in nine straight games. Pennington and the Jets need a spark and some rhythm on offense this week.

PREDICTION: Jets to cover 

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Marc Reichertz is a freelance columnist for football.com and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker room.