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New England Patriots +3 @ Indianapolis Colts -3

Could this finally be the year that Super Bowl?

This is the inevitable question that all those following the 14-4 Colts are now asking as they face their nemesis, the 14-4 New England Patriots, in what is promising to be an outstanding American Football Conference (AFC) Championship Game.

On Jan 18, 2004, New England beat Indianapolis 24-14 in the AFC Championship. The following year, this time in a divisional playoff battle on Jan 16, the Patriots defeated the Colts 20-3. Now they meet once again.

As the above scores indicate, New England found a way to keep the best player in the league, star quarterback Peyton Manning, off the tally sheets.

In their previous championship fight, Manning threw four interceptions. In the divisional game, which followed a season where Manning tossed a NFL-record 49 touchdown passes, the Colts were held to just a field goal. Will the third try be the charm?

With this game being played in Indianapolis, it is interesting to note that the Colts were decisively better during this regular season at home than on the road, while the Patriots were much better on the road. It is also interesting that the Patriots are undefeated since 1971 in championship games at 5-0, while the Colts are winless in such affairs at 0-3.

Indianapolis has allowed a mere 14 points combined in their two playoff games leading to this title fight, but with all due respect to San Diego Chargers team last weekend without their running game showing up, but you can look for the running game to show up this weekend.

The Colts had a horrendous regular season trying to defend the run; they were clearly the worst team in the NFL at doing so. But they have stopped very strong runners in the Chiefs' Larry Johnson and the Ravens' Jamal Lewis during the playoffs to get here. This game is a different story, however, because New England star quarterback Tom Brady and the weapons at disposal are much more dangerous than the air attacks of Kansas City and Baltimore. Indianapolis will be absolutely forced to respect New England's air game and that will open running lanes for New England.

Many believe the key to success for the Colts will be a mistake-free game from Manning, and they are right. New England's pass defense has been worse during the playoffs than it was during the regular season, so Manning will be chomping at the bit. There will be no surprises in this contest in terms of game plans, and there should not be any.

The Colts will be trying to get four to five touchdown passes on the board, and the Patriots will try to get a balanced amount of touchdowns on the ground and through the air. Who will complete their task?

The Colts started the regular season 9-0 and have been 5-4 since, with Manning sputtering in many of those latter nine games, including the last two playoff games. The Colts would probably win this one if Manning and his team were super-hot coming in, but the fact remains that they are not, and Brady, although not outstanding, has been good enough during his last nine games to have assisted a super-hot New England team to an 8-1 record through that span. Expect the fire to continue to burn.

PREDICTION: Patriots to cover +3 and under 47.5 (lines at time of writing)

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