in NFL Free Picks

Indianapolis Colts (-7)

Except for the San Diego matchup for the NFL Wild Card game they will be hosting on Saturday, when the Chiefs come strolling into the RCA Dome with zero expectations, zero pressure and every chance of walking out having handed the Colts their fifth straight pre-Super Bowl playoff exit.

The Colts coach, Tony Dungy, is well-respected, but he is supposed to be a defensive guru and defensive gurus earn that moniker by being able to stop the run. The only running the Colts have been stopping this year is, well…OK, they haven’t. They couldn’t stop jack. They couldn’t even stop Ron Dayne, who ran through their poor-tackling defensive backs like Britney Spears goes through familial problems. Dayne recorded just his third 100-yard rushing game this millennium and first since 2001, with 153 yards on the ground.

If this Colts team can make Mr. Dayne look like a good running back, what are they going to do when faced with the sometimes infantile, chip-on-his-shoulder workhorse named Larry Johnson? Johnson is one mean SOB and he has carried this Chiefs team into the playoffs with a record 416 carries this year, averaging 4.3 yards per carry.

Consider this: the Texans beat the Colts because Dayne had a good game against them and David Carr, who often does, did not lose the game for them. Quick, name me two Texans receivers. A-ha, you can’t. And the only reason you know Carr is because he is so bad. The Chiefs have Trent Green at quarterback; he has thrown for over 20,000 yards the past five seasons. He has Eddie Kennison at wide receiver and the incomparable Tony Gonzalez at tight end. In other words, the Chiefs have players who get the job done, and well.

Oh, one more thing: since taking over as the starting running back for the Chiefs last November, Larry Johnson averages 153 yards from scrimmage every game. That average, by the way, was built against teams that are much better at stopping the run than these Colts could ever dream of being.

The point is that the Chiefs are a MUCH better team than the Houston Texans who beat the Colts a couple weeks back, and their strengths play perfectly into the glaring weaknesses of the Colts, who broke the team record for yards allowed per rushing attempt with 5.3.

On the passing side of the game, word is out that the Colts were second in the league in pass defense. Ha-ha. Excuse me while I laugh at all the people buying into this number. I know it sounds good, but there are ways that stats like pass defense get inflated. Let’s do some fun math. Fun if you are not a Colts fan, that is.

This season, teams simply stopped trying to pass on Indianapolis, as they realized that their kicker could go out there and pick up at least a couple yards on the ground. The average number of passes against teams in the NFL was 512 over the course of the season. Opposing offences only tried to pass on the Colts 415 times, less than anyone except the hapless Raiders.

Of those 415 attempts, quarterbacks completed 64.1% of their passes against the Indy defense, for an average of 6.14 yards per pass. Only Detroit and Houston, actually, had a harder time stopping the pass than the Colts did. And when passes were completed, they were for very close to the NFL average (6.39) in yards gained.

What this tells me is that the Colts were not just bad at stopping the run, but they were also in the bottom three at stopping the pass. Their overall defense was about 30th in the league when put into perspective.

That, of course, gives even more credence to the greatness of the Colts offense. Manning and his receivers are masterful creators of scoring opportunities and, when they see an opening, they exploit it almost without fail.

Unfortunately for them, playing against a smart coach like Herm Edwards and an angry stud like Larry Johnson, I don’t see them being able to stay on the field long enough, or have enough opportunities, to stop the Chiefs from beating them at home for the first time this season.

Get the latest Join BetUS.com for free today!