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NFL Betting Lines - New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts

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New England Patriots (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) at
Indianapolis Colts (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS)

Sunday, November 15 - 8:20 PM ET

In the BetUS NFL betting lines, the Colts are listed as a 2.5-point favorite, with a posted total of 49.5 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

  • NE has covered four of its last six games
  • NE has won five of its last six games SU
  • NE has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total
  • NE has won 15 of its last 23 road games SU
  • NE has won 15 of its last 19 road games SU
  • NE has played four of its last five road games UNDER the total
  • IND has covered five of its last seven games
  • IND has played seven of its last ten games UNDER the total
  • IND has covered four of its last 14 home games
  • IND has won its last ten home games SU
  • IND has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total

Also...

  • IND has won and covered four of the last five meetings
  • NE is 14-6-2 ATS in the last 22 meetings
  • NE has won 15 of the last 21 meetings SU
  • Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
  • NE is 15-2-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings as the road team
  • Four of the last six meetings in Indianapolis have gone OVER the total
  • Nine of the last 13 meetings in Indianapolis have gone UNDER the total

Indianapolis has a spotless record, and in fact has won its last 17 regular season games. However, there is a little trouble in paradise. The Colts have had the fortune of not having to face a lot of explosive passing attacks, and Matt Schaub did a little damage against them last week with 32 completions for 311 yards despite not having access to Pro Bowl tight end Owen Daniels. Something that is going to be tough to hide for Indianapolis, though, is that he team is going into this game minus three of the guys who would normally be starting in the secondary, and that might handicap them with regard to evaluating the NFL betting lines.

Linebacker Tyjuan Hagler, and cornerbacks Kelvin Hayden and Marlon Jackson are out, as is safety Bob Sanders, who didn't see much action as it was but would be a guy who will be missed in these circumstances.

Boy, it is useful to have all hands on deck when you are going up against Tom Brady, who is starting to resemble Peyton Manning's numbers after getting off to a slow start. Both quarterbacks have 16 TD passes and just five interceptions. Brady has thrown for over 300 yards in three straight games, and has averaged 13.2 yards an attempt, which is a monster figure.

Of course, it has helped that Wes Welker got back into the lineup and stayed there. Welker, who with all due respect to Randy Moss is Brady's favorite receiver, has caught 55 passes on the season, and 29 in the last three games, for 241 yards. Laurence Maroney has added that much on the ground over that period, and that kind of balance is nice to have.

History indicates that there is a lot of success in the NFL odds for the Pats at Indianapolis, as they are 15-2-1 ATS in the last 18 as the visitor in this series. I don't know if that is all that meaningful, since the Colts have won four of the last five meetings, but Manning does not want Bill Belichick game-planning against him.

This could be a shootout, but we don't know if we want to go down that road, because there have been times when it looked like it was bombs away and it turned out to be a defensive battle.

Last year it was 18-15 Colts, and that was surprising, even though Matt Cassel was at QB for the Patriots. We have to give New England the defensive edge here, and we're wondering if the Colts have enough defensive depth to deal with Moss and Welker and whoever else Brady wants to send out there. This game is critical to the Pats, and they will pull some stuff out of the playbook that Indy's second-teamers aren't used to seeing.

Let's go with the Patriots, the 2.5-point underdog in the BetUS NFL betting lines.

JAY'S PLAY: NEW ENGLAND +2.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)