in NFL Free Picks

New England
Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 ET
Gillette Stadium in Foxboro

This matchup is the third installment for the Jets and Patriots after the AFC East rivals played to a 1-1 stalemate in the regular season, with each team inexplicably winning on the road. As was the case with the first two matchups, all eyes will again be on the head coaches. Jets first-year head coach Eric Mangini served six years under Patriots head coach Bill Belichick - five as defensive backs coach and last season as defensive coordinator.

While the New York Jets surprised many so-called experts by reaching the playoffs in their first year under Eric Mangini, they will have their work cut out for them if they are to beat the battle-tested Patriots in the playoffs, at home no less.

Here is a look at the matchup, point spread and a prediction on the outcome:

While New England won its fourth consecutive division titl,e and fifth in six years, the Patriots clearly aren't the team that dominated the entire league just a few short years ago. Having said that, they are still quite good and, as usual, seem to be playing their best football of the year just as they head into the playoffs.

After appearing sluggish in the early and middle part of the season, the Patriots won six of their final seven games and scored 104 points during a season-ending three-game winning streak - all after losing to the Jets.

Quarterback Tom Brady may not have any big name receivers, but he still managed to pass for 3,529 yards and 24 touchdowns, his fifth consecutive season with at least 23TDs.
The Patriots have an excellent combination of running backs in veteran Corey Dillon (812 yards, 13 touchdowns) and rookie Laurence Maroney (745, 6 TDs) and youngster Reche Caldwell has emerged as Brady's top target with 61 receptions for 760 yards. The Pats also had seven other players who caught at least 20 passes and ten who had at least one TD reception.

New England's defense matched a franchise record this season by allowing only 237 points, but will be without their leader, safety Rodney Harrison, who suffered a torn MCL in his right knee in the season finale on a block by Tennessee receiver Bobby Wade.

Unbeknownst to most, the Jets are in the playoffs for the fourth time in six years and are trying to win their third consecutive first-round matchup.

Mangini, a former assistant under Bill Belichick at New England (12-4), before leaving to become the youngest head coach in the NFL with the Jets (10-6), has done a masterful job in getting his team to buy into his system of high-percentage, disciplined football - a strategy that has been quite successful for the Patriots.

Quarterback Chad Pennington successfully recovered from his second offseason surgery on his rotator cuff to complete 64.5 percent of his passes for 3,352 yards and 17 touchdowns, while silencing every single one of his detractors along the way.

The Jets went to a running back by committee plan this season, when they unexpectedly lost future Hall of Famer, Curtis Martin -- the fourth-leading rusher in league history -- who has been sidelined all season with a knee injury that might ultimately end his career.
Mangini's backfield by committee had rookie Leon Washington lead the way with 650 yards, while Cedric Houston and Kevan Barlow combined for 744 and 11 touchdowns.

The Jets also got excellent production from their wide receivers all season. Laveranues Coles had a career-high 91 catches for 1,098 yards and six touchdowns, and Jerricho Cotchery, a third-year player, burst onto the scene with career highs of 82 receptions, 961 yards and six scores.

Defensively, the Jets have three of the game's best players in linebacker Jonathan Vilma, safety Kerry Rhodes and defensive end Bryan Thomas. Vilma had a team-high 114 tackles, Rhodes had five sacks, four interceptions and three forced fumbles, and Thomas led New York with 8½ sacks.

The Jets don't have great talent, but they don't beat themselves either - much like their counterparts in this game.

My Pick:
The Jets have had an absolutely wonderful season and apparently have an extremely bright future ahead of them. It's unfortunate that their season is going to end in this contest. The Patriots will prevail with experience, excellent defense and just enough offense to pull this one out. However, there is no way I think they will cover the high spread against a team that has proven themselves to be almost their equals.

Take the Jets to cover in a closer-than-expected affair 21-17, just under the 38-point Over/Under line.

Here is a look at some interesting betting statistics for each team this season.
Regular-season records:
New York: 10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS
New England: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS

New York most recently:
When playing in January are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing within the division are 5-5

New England most recently:
When playing in January are 8-2
When playing on turf are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the division are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
NY Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
NY Jets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road
NY Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
New England is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets

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Eric Williams is a sports columnist for the Philadelphia Sunday Sun, and Sr. NBA analyst for basketball.com, as well as a nationally syndicated freelance writer for both print and online publications.