in NFL Betting Trends

January 21, 3:00pm EST
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Chicago Bears

Sunday, the New Orleans Saints (11-6 SU & 10-7 ATS) attempt to earn their first ever trip to the Super Bowl when it takes on the Chicago Bears (14-3 SU & 9-8 ATS) in the NFC championship game.

In head-to-head action, New Orleans gets the check mark in the ATS (against the spread) category against Chicago. The Saints have covered the number in five of seven meetings with the Bears, including a push in that span.

It's no secret the Saints have an offense capable of covering any spread. They put up a stout 25.8 points per game this year, led by quarterback Drew Brees, who threw for an NFL-best 4,418 yards, 26 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. He finished third in the league in quarterback rating (96.2) and touchdowns.

The Saints are just 2-5 SU (straight up) in the playoffs, and if they are to better that number they'll have to do so with a defense that gave up a respectable 20.1 points per game.

Last week, New Orleans' defense allowed 355 yards. That's important to note heading into this game, because the Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous contest.

Their key to victory defensively this week will be to get in the face of Bears' quarterback Rex Grossman. This will be one of the few times Grossman has faced a defense that plays a lot of man coverage, which forces a quarterback to make plays. Grossman has been extremely shaky this season so this may pose a problem for the erratic signal caller.

However, there will be big play opportunities for the Bears and Grossman has to make the most of them. Saints' cornerback Fred Thomas has been susceptible to double moves and the Bears should be able to take advantage of this fact.

Last week, Grossman went 21-of-38 for 282 yards and collectively the offense gained 371 total yards. Bettors be aware: The Bears are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous contest.

Defensively, the Bears won't be able to play nearly as much downhill as they'd like because of the Saints' ability to attack in a variety of ways. The defense surrendered a stingy 15.9 points per game, third best in the league.

Notable game trends:
- Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
- Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
- Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Grass.
- Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
- Saints are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC.
- Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
- Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
- Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.

Note: The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

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