Many of us who always bet on NFL games are 50/50 on who will win against the spread in the Green Bay vs. Atlanta Falcons heavyweight gridiron battle this Sunday, Nov. 28th.
Atlanta, at 8-2, sits atop the NFC South while the Green Bay Packers, at 7-3, sit atop the NFC North. Both teams have not only their sights set on an NFC Playoff berth but home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This is easily one of the key games of the entire season for both and the repercussions of it might be felt deep into the playoffs this season.
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Nov. 28th, 2010 at 1:00 pm EST on FOX
NFL Betting Line
Green Bay Packers +2 ½ -110 O 47 ½ -110
Atlanta Falcons -2 ½ -110 U 47 ½ -110
The betting trends favor both teams in this game.
- The Green Bay Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games on field turf
- The Green Bay Packers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.
- The Atlanta Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as the favorite.
- The Atlanta Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
The Falcons are the favorites in the sportsbook because they are playing this game at home, but the NFL oddsmakers aren’t sold on the public’s belief in Atlanta. Football handicapping’s unstated rules almost always give a 3-point edge to the home team unless there is a belief that the public might be in favor of the away team at three points.
That’s the case here because football handicappers, at this point, are split 50/50 on who will cover the spread in this game. The game pretty much comes down to two factors: Atlanta QB Matt Ryan versus the Green Bay pass defense and Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers versus the Atlanta pass defense.
When it comes to Ryan vs. Green Bay’s pass defense, the edge has to go to Ryan, but only slightly. Matt Ryan is one of the better signal callers in the NFL, especially at home, where he has started his career with a record-tying 18-1 record.
He’s produced a triple-digit QB rating in three out of the Falcons’ last four games including throwing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns versus the Baltimore Ravens.
Green Bay’s pass defense is pretty good with Charles Woodson at one cornerback and Nick Collins at free safety, but Ryan just doesn’t make mistakes. He rates the slight edge in this matchup.
On the other side, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has a huge advantage over the Atlanta secondary. Rodgers has produced a 131.5 QB rating and a 141.3 QB rating in GB’s last two games, versus the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings, respectively.
Aaron Rodgers should absolutely dominate an Atlanta Falcon’s pass defense that gives up 244 yards per game through the air and allowed Philadelphia back-up QB Kevin Kolb to torch them for 326 yards and three touchdowns earlier this season.
That appears to be the biggest thing going for Green Bay. Atlanta has a very good rushing game, but GB’s rush defense held Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson to only 74 yards on 14 carries last week and is improving.
Green Bay is the team to back in this contest. They’ve got the better matchup in the passing game and that’s going to make the difference at the end of the day.
Free NFL Betting Pick: Green Bay Packers +1 ½
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