in NFL Free Picks

New Orleans, La.
January 13, 2007
8:00 P.M. EST

After nailing last week's New Orleans Saints, who have exceeded everyone's expectations this season except their own.

This interesting contest features two teams that are nearly evenly matched in every area, and who both have plenty of positives going for them as they head into this game. The Saints will be playing at home in front of an absolutely frenzied mob of Saints fans who will be ready to unleash over three decades worth of pent-up playoff frustration on the Eagles, who enter this contest as possibly the hottest team in all of football.

Here is a look at the upcoming matchup and my predictions on both point spreads.

There is no other way to put it - the Eagles are playing excellent football right now. Last week's victory over the Giants in their opening round wildcard playoff game may have been only a three-point margin on paper, but this game was never really in doubt if you ask me.

Offensively, the Eagles have become a more efficient team with Jeff Garcia at quarterback and have benefited from offensive coordinator Marty Morninwheg's decision to run the ball with elusive running back Brian Westbrook.

Westbrook will create the usual matchup problems he does week in and week out and should end this game with about 150 all-purpose yards. If Garcia can throw the ball effectively, and there's no reason to believe he won't, the Eagles should be able to move the ball against the Saint average defense with some sort of regularity.

Interestingly enough, the Eagles have also improved on the defensive side of the ball since Garcia took over for an injured Donovan McNabb. Linebacker Jeremiah Trotter is playing as well as ever and safety Brian Dawkins is still one of the top three to five players in the league at his position.

If the Eagles do have a cause for concern, it will be at cornerback, where starter Lito Sheppard has been ruled out for this game because of the dislocated elbow he suffered in the win over the Giants. If Sheppard's backup isn't ready for prime time, Saints quarterback Drew Brees will find a way to exploit it.

One thing that does work in the Eagles’ favor now is that they have the ability to run out the clock using their rushing attack, whereas, in their 27-24 loss to the Saints in New Orleans earlier this season, with McNabb at quarterback, Eagles called pass plays more than 60 percent of the time and couldn't hold a 24-17 lead with 13 minutes left because they wouldn't use the running game to run out the clock.

The Saints should benefit from their week of rest and the comforts of playing at home in front of a raucous crowd. They will also benefit from having one of the most explosive offenses in all of football. Brees, who is looking for his first playoff victory, is now, undoubtedly, one of the elite quarterbacks in the game and his supporting cast isn't exactly chopped liver either.

Like their counterpart Westbrook, both Saints running backs, Deuce McCallister and Reggie Bush, particularly Bush, can cause matchup problems for linebackers and safeties when they get their defender "in space." McCallister can be a load to handle running the ball and will test the Eagles run defense, which gave up 137 yards to Tiki Barber last week.

Brees, who led the NFL with 4,418 passing yards this season, should also be able to get the ball to receivers Joe Horn and rookie Marques Colston, another pair of playmakers for New Orleans who may be able to take advantage of the fact that Sheppard will be out for Philadelphia. Either way, expect the Saints to be able to move the ball with some sort of regularity. Whether that translates into field goals or touchdown is the question for the Saints.

The Line: Indianapolis Philadelphia +5 At New Orleans Over/Under 49

My Pick:
I almost drove myself crazy coming up with this selection, but I managed to get it done. The 5-point spread doesn't bother me at all, selecting a winner and a score was a different story altogether. Take the Eagles with the 5-point spread easily. I also like the over and my winner is ... New Orleans 31 Philadelphia 28.

Both teams should put some points up in this one, I just believe Brees, and the Saints 12th-man, will find a way to pull this game out and advance, continuing their run of amazing success this season.

Here is a look at some interesting betting statistics for each team this season.

Team records:
Philadelphia: 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
New Orleans: 10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS

Philadelphia most recently:
-When playing in January are 5-5
-When playing on turf are 4-6
-After outgaining opponent are 6-4
-When playing outside the division are 5-5

New Orleans most recently:
-When playing in January are 3-7
-When playing on turf are 6-4
-After being outgained are 3-7
-When playing outside the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
-Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
-Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
-Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
-The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
-The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games
-New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
-New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
-The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

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Eric Williams is a sports columnist for the Philadelphia Sunday Sun, and Sr. NBA analyst for basketball.com as well as a nationally syndicated freelance writer for both print and online publications.