in NFL Free Picks

New Orleans Saints (10-6) vs. Chicago Bears (13-3)
Sunday, January 21st --- Soldier Field, Chicago --- 3:00pm EST

Preview
The NFL and America’s (new) Team. Now they leave the comfort of the Superdome and prepare to battle the best of the NFC.

Saints Offense vs. Bears Defense
The Saints have the most productive offense in the NFL, and can play in any number of styles. They can dazzle you with the finesse of Reggie Bush, flash speed with Marques Colston or hammer you in the nose with Deuce McAllister. But the Bears defense is simply due for a big game, and there’s no bigger stage than the NFC Championship.

The Saints have two of the best running-backs in the league in Reggie and Deuce. For the Bears, it will come down to the play of defensive tackles Tank Johnson and Ian Scott. These two must shut down the interior and pave way for Brian Urlacher to shut down the run in the backfield. Last week Deuce had his way with Jeremiah Trotter of the Eagles. He will not have an advantage against Urlacher.

Reggie is a different story because of his speed and versatility as a receiver. Sean Peyton has successfully used Reggie in the latter part of the season, and Reggie is a difficult matchup for the Bears. Bush can, however, be slowed by teams that love to gang tackle, and the Bears simply love swarming the ball.

The Bears have experience at corner with Tillman and Vashar, and they will have the edge against the Saints receivers. Marques Colston had an outstanding rookie campaign, as did Devery Henderson. But they will be hard pressed to expose Tillman and Vashar, who play mistake-free on defense and won’t bite on Brees’ pump fakes. Those fakes are where he makes his big plays.

Look for the Saints come out with different styles of play each drive to confuse the Bears. If the Bears fail to show up prepared against this versatile offense, then the Saints will put up points fast.

Bears Offense vs. Saints Defense
The Bears will run Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson until both have nothing left in the tank. The key to beating the Saints is establishing a rushing game that forces them to pull their safeties in to the box, exposing their corners in one-on-one coverage. When this happens, the Saints will be in big trouble.

Forget what you have been told, have heard, or think, about Rex Grossman. If there is one thing he does well, it’s throw the deep ball to Bernard Berrien. Grossman will be looking for #22, cornerback Fred Thomas, who gave up a number of big plays against the Eagles. Lovie Smith will call on Grossman to manage the game, making short passes and occasionally going long very to Berrien, their big play speed freak.

The Saints are vulnerable on defense, which often gets overshadowed because their offense puts so many points on the board. The truth is that they allow 128.9 yards per game on the ground, so Jones and Benson will have an extended workload on Sunday. Their corners are weak and lack experience, which could kill them if Grossman gets firing early on.

Look for Desmond Clark to be their main red-zone target, as his speed will be a matchup nightmare for the Saints. The fact of the matter is that nobody should be sold on the Saints defense. And the Bears, at times, have been able to blow-up the scoreboard with their offense.

Expect the Bears to keep it simple. Run the ball as much as possible, allowing Rex Grossman to expose man-on-man coverage and attacking the Saints’ vulnerable secondary.

Trends to Note
-New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
-New Orleans is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
-Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
-The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 10 games at home

Final Verdict
All the emotions, energy and excitement that the Saints were feeding off of last week in the Superdome are simply gone. It’s in New Orleans with their fan base. Chicago is about as unfriendly as it comes, and, with the freezing weather, the explosive offense of the Saints will cool off.

If you are looking for emotion, then look to the Bears, who have had tremendous success at home. Do you have any idea how rabid Chicago will be with their team one step closer to the Super Bowl? The same emotion that New Orleans was swelling with last week will be at Soldier field, but it will be in favor of the Bears.

The Bears can slug it out and chase you on the scoreboard. The Saints won’t be able to power up their offense in the cold weather, and if this becomes a slugfest, then the Saints simply can’t hope to match the Bears’ grit and tenacity.

The Cinderella story ends in Chicago for the Saints. They gave their team a playoff win at home, the greatest gift the city has received in the wake of Katrina. Now the Bears need to give their city what it has craved for years – a Super Bowl.

New Orleans – 27

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