in NFL Free Picks

Miami Dolphins -3.5 @ Detroit Lions +3.5

There is no doubt the Lions look like they deserve to be home dogs this holiday week, after losses to both the 49ers and the Cardinals. But let us look a little deeper into the reasons this number is where it is at. First off, the Dolphins have a ton of public support left over from the glory days of Marino. His effect on the fan base of this team can never be overlooked. Neither, however, can the fact that their mascot is a dolphin, for crying out loud. What other creature do humans relate to and think more kindly of than dolphins? Many of us think dolphins are closer, emotionally and cognitively, to humans than any other living creature. And they have such pretty colors on their uniforms, too. It has an effect, believe me.

When oddsmakers set their lines, they are simply trying to balance the betting coming in on either team so that the book may rake in their commission, or vigorish, without a care as to who wins the game. They do not set the lines with regards to how they think the game will end. On this note, the Dolphins have a much larger fan base than the Lions do, and this alone – if everything else was equal – would make the Dolphins the favorites on the spread.

The fact that the Dolphins have won three straight games also is having the effect of inflating this line. A look at those wins, however, reveals that they were, for the most part, the result of poor play by the opposing teams and the result of good luck more than great playing by the Dolphins. They beat Kansas City, who simply had a bad day offensively, by scoring just 13 points. Against Chicago, the Bears handed the ball over to them six times! The Vikings handed two touchdowns to the Dolphins defense. All three of these teams the Dolphins have beaten in the last three weeks would easily say they played one of, if not the, worst games of their season. In fact, the Miami offense, over this streak, has only scored an average of 15.7 points per game. That is 3 less than what the Lions have been scoring per contest.

Of course, the Dolphins have a better defense than do the Lions, but they have a few injuries coming into Motown tomorrow. Guard James, safety Tillman are out and cornerback Allen will be slowed by a sore groin. Other Dolphin defensive players hurting at least somewhat include: DT Traylor, CB Lehan, LB Crowder and DE Bowens. Meanwhile, the Lions are relatively healthy and would simply love to feast on Joey Harrington in his return to Detroit!

The Dolphins and the public are riding a high again and this holiday line is a gift for the sharp bettor. Detroit should not lose by more than 3 points and, if they can control the turnovers (they lost that battle 5-1 in the two losses to San Fran and Arizona), they can win this game outright.

Some sites have this line at +3, or even +2.5 points. Take the Lions at home and the 3.5 points you are getting in the BetUS.com Sportsbook today and have a safe, happy and profitable Thanksgiving!