in NFL Free Picks

Will someone please tell the Pittsburgh how well grinding New England’s gears worked for them.

Meanwhile, the Brady Bunch will be looking to solidify their place in history as they invite the Jaguars in to Gillette to get thrashed by Belichik's genius. Can this defense, which has showed signs of weakness lately, overcome the Jacksonville rushing attack?

Jacksonville Offense vs. New England Defense

David Garrard has completely justified Jack Del Rio’s decision to start him at the beginning of the season. The Jags, surprisingly, average 208.0 yards per game. Jacksonville’s stable of receivers were all tall, athletic, and seemingly useless. But Garrard has turned them all in to scoring threats, taking advantage of the height and speed and Del Rio adores so much. The Jags have stunned the NFL by averaging 25.7 points per game.

But the real problem for New England here is their rushing defense. It’s no secret that Del Rio will attack the front-seven with ironman Fred Taylor and Maurice “Mojo” Jones-Drew relentlessly. The Jags average 149.4 rushing yards per game, while New England has given up 98.3 rush yards against on average. The Jags must grind up the clock and keep Brady on the sidelines by pounding the rock all night long.

New England Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense

As much as everyone loves Jacksonville to upset the Patriots this weekend, you can’t count out the Brady-Moss factor. Just as they did against Baltimore, Brady and Moss connected on big-plays late in the game to put the game out of reach.

All it takes is one slip-up to turn the tides in New England’s favor, and you can bet on the overly aggressive Jacksonville secondary that will undoubtedly make a crucial mistake in coverage against Moss or Stallworth. The Jags give up 213.8 passing yards and 1001.1 rushing yards.

The Patriots averaged a startling 295.7 passing yards during the season, and this game will be placed squarely in Brady’s hands to win. Maroney has shown flashes of solid up-field running, but the Patriots control the ball by letting Wes Welker dominate the middle of the field. Bet on Brady to confuse the Jaguars defense by unleashing the pigskin all over the field, keeping the Jaguars on their heels, and the Patriots in the red-zone.

 Trends

-Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games

-Jacksonville is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

-Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England

-New England is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games

-New England is 1-6 ATS in its last 6 games

Final Verdict

In short, the football betting investor has to decide between two vastly different teams. On one hand, you have the Jaguars, who fail to boast a player on their roster with a vast amount of playoff experience, with a coach who has failed to produce in the playoffs and a quarterback who has only played in one big playoff matchup. On the other end are the dynasty building Patriots, with the AP Coach of the Year managing the best team in league history. Take your pick on who you think is going to be affected by the playoff pressure in this one (hint: it’s the Jaguars).

New England Patriots (16-0)

Saturday, Januarys 12th --- Gillette Stadium, Foxboro --- 8:00pm EST

Opening NFL Betting Line: New England -11.5 (48.5)

NFL Playoff Free Pick: Jacksonville 14 New England 31

The 2007 and beyond!