in NFL Free Picks

Dallas Cowboys (9-7) vs. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
Saturday, January 6th --- Qwest Field, Seattle --- 8:00pm EST

Preview
Both the Seahawks (9-7) have had turbulent seasons. America’s Team has endured the growing pains of quarterback Tony Romo. Seattle, meanwhile, lost their pro-bowl quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and their star running-back Shaun Alexander midway through the season.

Now, both teams come in to the playoffs fully healthy. Hasselbeck and Alexander have both returned to the team, and are playing above expectations. The Cowboys are reeling after a loss to the lowly Detroit Lions in Week 17, but still possess the firepower to be competitive in this game.

Dallas Offense vs. Seattle Defense
As Tony Romo’s star rose to new heights in the NFL, head coach Bill Parcells instilled more confidence in the passing game. With wide-receivers Terrell Owen and Terry Glenn playing with tight-end Jason Witten, it seemed like a safe decision. However, the Cowboys have lost three of their last four going in to the playoffs, with all the losses at home.

The Cowboys desperately need to return to the running game in order to win. They have two tailbacks worthy of starting in Julius Jones and Marion Barber III. Barber seemed to emerge as the premier back in the latter half of the season, but Jones is a decisive and versatile back. The Cowboys can run the ball effectively, and it will be imperative that they do so in a wet, open-roofed Qwest Field.

The Cowboys rushed for 121 yards per game over the season, while Seattle allowed 126.8 yards per game. Expect big things out of Barber and Jones as they pressure the Seattle front-four to stop them.

An effective rushing attack for the Cowboys will be Seattle’s worst nightmare. Owens and Glenn are one of the best tandems in the country, and can decimate a secondary that has been blown wide open by injuries. Rain might make it difficult for Romo and the passing game to connect efficiently, but Dallas will surely take their chances against a depleted Seattle secondary.

Seattle Offense vs. Dallas Defense
Hasselbeck is a pro-bowl caliber quarterback with a great skill set and good decision making abilities. Seattle’s passing attack is strong at home and they are used to playing in the wet weather. Look for a lot of short plays underneath to Deion Branch, a perennial big-play receiver in the playoffs.

Though they added veteran safety Tony Parrish, and possess one of the league’s heaviest hitters in safety Roy Williams, the Dallas secondary has been shoddy all year long. They allow 219.1 yards per game.

Alexander is, without question, a danger to Dallas. He will run behind left tackle Walter Jones often in an attempt to move the chains against Dallas’ decent run defense. Alexander has played extremely well  in the last six weeks, posting over 600 yards during that time.

The key for Seattle will be Deion Branch, as the rest of the receiving corps is unreliable at best. Tight-end Jeramy Stevens drops passes like he’s allergic to the football, and the inconsistent Darrell Jackson is questionable.

Trends to Note
-Dallas is 1-4 ATS in last 5 games
-total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle’s last 14 games
-total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas’s last 10 road games
-Dallas is 4-1 SU on the road in their last 5 games

Final Verdict
Everyone is saying that the Cowboys are too volatile/combustible/streaky to win in the playoffs. Well, throw all those thoughts out the window and concentrate on this single match-up.

The Niners showed that the best way to beat Seattle is to run the ball down their throats. With Barber and Jones spelling each other, the Cowboys will be able to attack consistently on the ground. Alexander will be tough to contain, but he has never come through huge in the playoffs before.

Everyone is looking for Dallas to implode. Against an over-hyped Seattle team, Dallas should bounce back and advance to the next round of the playoffs. Do not count America’s Team out until the final bell is rung.

Seattle - 13

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